Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2020-08-27

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2020-08-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 128333 16384 97 316 26 0 0 0
OW 159 2793 126 802 104 0 0 0
VODI 1 876 149 4315 1743 23 0 0
ODI 0 3 5 762 6292 1327 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 54 1676 9274 2356 7
VCDI 0 0 0 0 8 2845 5671 521
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-08-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 130159 15044 69 283 27 0 0 0
OW 376 3110 124 730 140 0 0 0
VODI 0 1165 196 3869 1744 118 0 0
ODI 0 6 5 846 5875 1171 31 0
CDI 0 0 0 36 1650 10855 788 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 6 7053 1572 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-08-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 130532 17950 136 332 5 0 0 0
OW 9 1795 183 1119 63 0 0 0
VODI 0 237 93 3369 1214 0 0 0
ODI 0 1 0 484 6518 850 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 12 810 8949 4544 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 678 6182 983
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-08-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 131028 17811 144 469 67 0 0 0
OW 2 1623 186 1409 301 8 0 0
VODI 0 172 76 2464 1958 197 0 0
ODI 0 1 2 358 4976 1918 37 0
CDI 0 0 0 13 1626 8504 3948 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 12 5538 2200 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 131029 18193 148 664 105 0 0 0
OW 1 1227 175 1325 331 15 0 0
VODI 0 186 83 2388 2005 212 0 0
ODI 0 1 2 322 4810 1839 170 0
CDI 0 0 0 14 1681 8257 3945 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 8 5842 2070 0

Date: 2020-08-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 131149 18266 120 482 37 0 0 0
OW 0 1866 180 1344 278 30 0 0
VODI 0 265 106 2202 1723 461 22 0
ODI 0 6 2 452 3865 2291 409 0
CDI 0 1 0 30 1449 10400 2154 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 10 5042 2406 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 131149 18717 135 684 66 13 0 0
OW 0 1398 168 1285 323 25 6 0
VODI 0 281 102 2089 1872 367 32 0
ODI 0 7 3 421 3620 2470 382 0
CDI 0 1 0 30 1469 10214 2207 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 12 5135 2364 0

Date: 2020-08-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 133253 17668 103 294 10 0 0 0
OW 0 1641 203 918 59 0 0 0
VODI 0 237 98 2635 755 5 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 286 5615 316 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 14 1036 9188 916 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1462 9970 364
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 133253 17168 119 495 87 22 4 0
OW 0 1779 143 1069 327 19 11 0
VODI 0 584 133 1943 1602 449 140 0
ODI 0 15 10 567 3848 1373 685 0
CDI 0 0 1 70 1605 7858 4433 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 6 1250 5613 364

Date: 2020-09-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 133739 17831 101 279 11 0 0 0
OW 0 1781 179 892 110 6 0 0
VODI 0 436 106 2088 864 20 0 0
ODI 0 6 3 495 4544 505 14 0
CDI 0 0 0 48 1611 8572 1154 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1368 8630 1655
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 133739 16976 107 497 128 28 15 0
OW 0 1987 135 763 316 48 28 0
VODI 0 989 116 1658 1542 523 221 0
ODI 0 101 30 703 3260 1241 783 0
CDI 0 1 1 179 1890 7833 3312 299
VCDI 0 0 0 2 4 798 5439 1356

Date: 2020-09-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 134976 16888 67 174 7 0 0 0
OW 0 2284 165 715 91 2 0 0
VODI 0 538 132 1875 880 14 0 0
ODI 0 35 13 591 3721 731 3 0
CDI 0 2 2 79 1569 7041 3017 19
VCDI 0 0 0 0 19 1229 7210 2959
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 134976 16054 83 372 82 31 3 0
OW 0 2268 113 672 321 21 12 0
VODI 0 1211 132 1445 1553 640 99 0
ODI 0 199 47 741 2623 1435 876 0
CDI 0 15 4 203 1687 6203 4852 531
VCDI 0 0 0 1 21 687 4388 2447


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