Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2020-07-30

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2020-08-03

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 247 2497 61 324 11 0 0 0
OW 2 180 35 381 90 0 0 0
VODI 0 21 10 896 727 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 106 6317 613 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 6 712 19244 2258 53
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 108 1898 103
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 249 2532 65 495 76 0 0 0
OW 0 129 29 391 333 0 0 0
VODI 0 34 10 447 2171 102 0 0
ODI 0 3 2 344 4319 4805 187 0
CDI 0 0 0 36 958 14884 3969 156
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 176 0 0

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 281 277 13 28 0 0 0 0
OW 0 10 0 63 19 0 0 0
VODI 0 11 0 118 53 3 0 0
ODI 0 3 3 7 202 74 0 0
CDI 0 2 1 51 558 1133 141 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 9 16 57 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 281 259 13 97 27 0 0 0
OW 0 22 0 92 32 5 0 0
VODI 0 14 0 21 97 56 0 0
ODI 0 4 1 4 121 351 9 0
CDI 0 4 3 28 428 814 189 0
VCDI 0 0 0 25 136 0 0 0

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 34 1189 40 107 4 0 0 0
OW 0 59 17 122 38 0 0 0
VODI 0 6 3 408 511 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 7 4142 231 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 188 2736 140 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 34 1213 46 190 39 0 0 0
OW 0 39 12 148 153 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 2 133 1271 194 4 0
ODI 0 0 0 173 2791 1332 16 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 629 1441 120 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1990 2134 35 130 0 0 0 0
OW 0 113 17 188 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 589 173 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 284 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1990 2003 36 191 0 0 0 0
OW 0 216 14 231 27 0 0 0
VODI 0 28 3 432 266 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 53 164 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3345 3089 24 66 0 0 0 0
OW 0 43 11 169 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 5 0 335 48 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 110 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3345 3122 30 134 0 0 0 0
OW 0 15 5 155 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 282 117 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 32 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3378 1919 7 22 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3378 1919 7 22 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4783 1094 8 29 0 0 0 0
OW 0 11 7 104 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 91 56 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 143 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4783 1045 6 48 1 0 0 0
OW 0 54 4 56 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 6 5 115 90 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 5 107 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10724 594 2 1 0 0 0 0
OW 0 9 1 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10724 581 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 21 2 1 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7227 2587 24 154 15 0 0 0
OW 0 47 8 84 43 0 0 0
VODI 0 5 2 89 181 9 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 18 701 72 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 55 375 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7227 2576 25 169 35 0 0 0
OW 0 56 6 97 109 3 0 0
VODI 0 7 3 64 273 44 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 11 495 214 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 83 195 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 11479 1435 12 56 6 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 11479 1435 12 56 6 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4728 1033 5 15 0 0 0 0
OW 0 8 2 5 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 1 5 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4728 1032 5 15 0 0 0 0
OW 0 8 3 9 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 0 1 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7519 744 19 206 35 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 20 27 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 17 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7519 744 19 208 47 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 18 32 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 19187 1007 6 9 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 19187 1007 6 9 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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