Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2020-07-23

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2020-07-27

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10 2509 66 269 26 0 0 0
OW 0 221 40 334 86 0 0 0
VODI 0 4 6 475 453 0 0 0
ODI 0 1 0 53 5032 639 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 446 23166 950 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1229 885 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10 2521 78 413 101 0 0 0
OW 0 189 28 336 351 6 0 0
VODI 0 24 6 319 1513 286 0 0
ODI 0 1 0 45 2895 4141 76 0
CDI 0 0 0 20 1183 19168 1559 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1433 200 0

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 238 175 15 33 0 0 0 0
OW 0 22 4 40 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 34 1 119 92 0 0 0
ODI 0 23 3 18 489 19 0 0
CDI 0 16 0 11 801 678 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 270 27 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 238 175 14 43 8 0 0 0
OW 0 14 5 47 49 0 0 0
VODI 0 21 0 95 154 0 0 0
ODI 0 22 0 24 215 14 0 0
CDI 0 37 4 6 839 683 0 0
VCDI 0 1 0 8 390 27 0 0

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 21 1019 23 129 23 0 0 0
OW 0 36 17 142 53 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 2 215 245 0 0 0
ODI 0 1 0 29 3502 217 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1554 2386 366 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 21 1002 29 157 47 0 0 0
OW 0 50 11 184 92 0 0 0
VODI 0 5 2 145 401 0 0 0
ODI 0 1 0 29 2570 475 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 2267 2128 366 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1570 2123 16 20 3 0 0 0
OW 0 67 35 67 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 63 19 532 78 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 1038 6 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 12 3 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1570 2052 17 23 2 0 0 0
OW 0 128 22 80 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 73 31 511 173 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 5 692 6 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 262 3 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2391 3640 12 59 0 0 0 0
OW 0 272 42 132 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 3 4 339 46 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 12 294 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2391 3412 12 101 0 0 0 0
OW 0 393 20 91 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 110 26 337 62 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 13 278 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2855 2387 16 36 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 25 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2855 2366 15 62 0 0 0 0
OW 0 21 1 6 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3716 1918 18 59 0 0 0 0
OW 0 27 9 101 22 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 90 105 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 222 12 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 12 19 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3716 1910 20 142 35 0 0 0
OW 0 35 6 51 41 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 57 141 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 135 18 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 9 13 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10077 1219 4 8 0 0 0 0
OW 0 6 0 15 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10077 1211 4 7 0 0 0 0
OW 0 9 0 7 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 5 0 10 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7186 2562 19 72 1 0 0 0
OW 0 52 8 106 17 2 0 0
VODI 0 3 5 129 134 18 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 7 775 82 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 69 446 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7186 2543 20 98 14 1 0 0
OW 0 62 7 118 44 15 0 0
VODI 0 12 5 84 208 42 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 12 571 143 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 159 339 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 11 0 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 11189 1544 18 212 25 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 11189 1544 18 212 25 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4144 1566 12 44 1 0 0 0
OW 0 8 3 8 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 15 2 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4144 1571 12 46 1 0 0 0
OW 0 3 3 12 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 9 2 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4843 3034 55 374 42 0 0 0
OW 0 14 7 44 51 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 35 85 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4843 3044 58 417 99 0 0 0
OW 0 4 4 24 64 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 12 18 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 19371 787 11 23 0 0 0 0
OW 0 6 1 7 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 19371 781 11 19 0 0 0 0
OW 0 12 1 11 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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