Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2020-05-14

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2020-05-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72137 15117 233 1222 310 4 0 0
OW 63 76 34 424 437 14 0 0
VODI 0 27 15 246 803 225 20 0
ODI 0 4 6 104 712 513 40 0
CDI 0 0 0 32 611 1259 241 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 318 2487 5390 5974
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-05-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72959 14634 176 1153 335 10 0 0
OW 62 121 30 322 445 51 0 0
VODI 0 37 16 224 724 215 37 0
ODI 0 30 7 123 569 370 69 0
CDI 0 10 7 52 476 1046 161 0
VCDI 0 0 0 36 417 2389 5779 6008
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-05-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73378 14598 166 951 208 7 0 0
OW 61 108 52 411 301 41 0 0
VODI 0 28 6 368 517 136 14 0
ODI 0 8 4 104 955 260 73 0
CDI 0 0 0 53 649 1393 227 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 332 2437 5128 6125
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-05-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73990 14305 176 1056 324 50 0 0
OW 60 237 37 298 380 83 23 0
VODI 0 121 24 296 647 123 97 0
ODI 0 42 8 198 608 341 138 0
CDI 0 14 10 110 842 873 401 0
VCDI 0 0 0 54 519 1945 4987 5683
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73991 14370 179 1095 366 59 3 0
OW 59 179 37 273 314 68 21 0
VODI 0 119 20 261 589 129 97 0
ODI 0 42 9 206 608 314 131 0
CDI 0 9 10 130 899 860 378 0
VCDI 0 0 0 47 544 1985 5016 5683

Date: 2020-05-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75187 13558 159 941 417 66 6 0
OW 56 353 34 296 357 105 34 0
VODI 0 228 29 290 656 154 134 0
ODI 0 70 14 241 459 229 177 0
CDI 0 36 16 139 800 887 570 0
VCDI 0 0 0 53 360 1401 7380 3208
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75187 13626 158 953 445 76 13 0
OW 56 279 33 267 302 86 31 0
VODI 0 229 31 271 638 179 120 0
ODI 0 83 13 239 536 248 154 0
CDI 0 28 14 182 738 794 630 0
VCDI 0 0 3 48 390 1459 7353 3208

Date: 2020-05-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74897 14138 162 875 327 47 2 0
OW 52 401 47 309 285 70 7 0
VODI 0 128 25 452 583 108 33 0
ODI 0 27 11 78 1161 249 67 0
CDI 0 1 5 84 470 1642 615 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 59 851 5491 5340
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74897 13967 164 949 546 137 28 0
OW 52 328 25 190 363 114 49 0
VODI 0 282 27 265 636 193 138 0
ODI 0 95 19 208 551 314 206 0
CDI 0 23 15 163 632 1189 868 0
VCDI 0 0 0 24 157 1020 4926 5340

Date: 2020-05-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75536 13696 158 1118 481 41 0 0
OW 50 186 42 418 438 74 9 0
VODI 0 46 6 205 1002 180 19 0
ODI 0 15 11 57 502 493 59 0
CDI 0 0 1 86 515 1951 986 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 38 1252 4886 4543
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75535 13318 150 1033 749 164 13 0
OW 51 299 23 184 433 189 30 0
VODI 0 256 24 279 558 283 106 0
ODI 0 66 10 240 423 360 270 0
CDI 0 4 11 147 678 1735 1091 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 135 1260 4449 4543

Date: 2020-05-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76526 12898 173 1288 543 26 0 0
OW 50 94 21 470 556 70 11 0
VODI 0 44 8 146 1002 209 31 0
ODI 0 11 11 71 413 624 129 0
CDI 0 0 1 67 513 2221 1115 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 6 883 4997 3872
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76526 12503 142 1048 999 182 20 0
OW 50 333 28 255 483 173 37 0
VODI 0 188 25 404 426 269 151 0
ODI 0 23 15 231 415 447 250 0
CDI 0 0 4 104 649 1983 1016 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 61 979 4809 3872


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