Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Asian sector

Bulletin date: 2020-03-26

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2020-03-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 55 2 3 0 0 0 0
OW 0 18 5 17 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 14 5 30 15 0 0 0
ODI 0 8 1 14 20 11 5 0
CDI 0 11 3 7 41 115 144 69
VCDI 0 10 2 75 165 751 10365 20101
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-03-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 30 3 7 11 0 0 0
OW 0 21 5 8 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 13 7 28 13 1 0 0
ODI 0 5 1 26 20 19 12 0
CDI 0 5 1 13 37 170 155 62
VCDI 0 1 1 20 169 1189 9447 20576
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-03-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 84 11 57 10 0 0 0
OW 0 13 5 33 19 0 0 0
VODI 0 10 3 42 63 10 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 28 144 62 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 102 167 17 21
VCDI 0 0 0 0 14 855 8880 21422
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-03-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 99 13 47 9 0 0 0
OW 0 55 8 42 11 0 0 0
VODI 0 41 4 85 108 1 0 0
ODI 0 21 0 42 123 35 3 0
CDI 0 2 0 2 162 174 101 2
VCDI 0 0 0 0 76 1118 11187 18511
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 125 17 59 10 0 0 0
OW 0 40 8 59 14 0 0 0
VODI 0 31 0 74 113 0 0 0
ODI 0 18 0 24 114 30 4 0
CDI 0 4 0 2 152 186 108 4
VCDI 0 0 0 0 86 1112 11179 18509

Date: 2020-03-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 67 2 38 38 0 0 0
OW 0 29 12 40 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 33 17 117 56 2 0 0
ODI 0 1 1 81 120 31 16 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 136 174 109 11
VCDI 0 0 0 0 65 1498 12299 17073
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 64 4 47 38 0 0 0
OW 0 44 20 47 13 0 0 0
VODI 0 22 8 124 69 5 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 63 109 22 16 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 130 156 123 18
VCDI 0 0 0 0 65 1522 12285 17066

Date: 2020-03-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 71 0 9 32 24 0 0
OW 0 14 5 44 34 8 0 0
VODI 0 3 0 23 101 15 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 119 134 45 1
CDI 0 0 0 0 38 256 152 11
VCDI 0 0 0 0 13 764 6645 23521
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 48 0 3 27 24 0 0
OW 0 30 0 14 20 7 0 0
VODI 0 9 5 46 63 21 0 0
ODI 0 1 0 13 95 68 63 7
CDI 0 0 0 0 106 191 111 82
VCDI 0 0 0 0 26 890 6668 23444

Date: 2020-04-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 43 3 13 1 54 0 0
OW 0 4 4 25 15 27 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 12 60 47 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 32 83 12 1
CDI 0 0 0 0 18 192 135 117
VCDI 0 0 0 0 7 563 6945 23669
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 36 2 6 1 50 0 0
OW 0 10 4 12 7 31 0 0
VODI 0 1 1 32 47 33 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 26 84 27 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 34 189 121 108
VCDI 0 0 0 0 18 579 6944 23679

Date: 2020-04-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 29 4 6 0 35 13 0
OW 0 1 1 25 2 36 2 0
VODI 0 0 0 11 40 34 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 28 63 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 3 149 115 17
VCDI 0 0 0 0 24 876 9256 21309
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 23 1 5 0 28 14 0
OW 0 7 4 8 0 27 1 0
VODI 0 0 0 30 43 50 4 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 24 96 33 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 7 170 73 63
VCDI 0 0 0 0 23 822 9263 21263


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