Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2020-01-16

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2020-01-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74858 13279 127 434 222 123 73 0
OW 71 646 38 301 101 26 17 0
VODI 0 370 33 299 186 57 9 0
ODI 0 204 13 169 227 60 13 0
CDI 0 140 16 186 328 178 49 0
VCDI 0 43 6 220 1169 4434 7334 3041
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-01-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74791 12749 153 580 238 127 71 0
OW 73 643 47 315 115 31 26 0
VODI 0 365 28 335 227 50 36 0
ODI 0 146 9 185 240 88 38 0
CDI 0 91 13 106 387 201 80 0
VCDI 0 74 10 203 852 2901 8282 4194
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-01-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73481 13548 160 783 310 104 34 0
OW 73 460 57 295 276 62 20 0
VODI 0 267 23 286 386 104 27 0
ODI 0 69 20 144 411 137 32 0
CDI 0 40 5 102 449 317 127 0
VCDI 0 28 4 103 729 3086 8269 4272
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-01-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72452 13820 170 771 391 113 51 0
OW 74 407 47 311 267 87 16 0
VODI 0 197 31 402 373 135 41 0
ODI 0 82 13 219 394 155 43 0
CDI 0 43 6 101 493 349 148 0
VCDI 0 17 6 88 730 3503 8324 4230
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72452 13844 177 784 422 126 54 0
OW 74 390 38 315 237 88 16 0
VODI 0 182 34 400 395 130 49 0
ODI 0 86 12 205 356 153 60 0
CDI 0 44 6 107 452 316 148 0
VCDI 0 20 6 81 786 3529 8296 4230

Date: 2020-01-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72254 13814 159 760 450 170 56 0
OW 74 437 48 312 231 85 32 0
VODI 0 219 31 340 306 125 48 0
ODI 0 57 17 195 391 155 55 0
CDI 0 29 5 97 606 330 104 0
VCDI 0 6 2 67 831 3248 9395 3559
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72254 13880 164 780 477 196 68 0
OW 74 374 42 310 228 70 38 0
VODI 0 204 33 321 300 140 51 0
ODI 0 56 14 192 382 143 73 0
CDI 0 37 6 92 583 312 90 0
VCDI 0 11 3 76 845 3252 9370 3559

Date: 2020-01-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72680 13615 152 599 217 86 21 0
OW 74 354 72 516 193 40 27 0
VODI 0 93 22 485 450 73 39 0
ODI 0 14 7 151 720 159 41 0
CDI 0 0 0 65 742 540 127 0
VCDI 0 0 0 7 419 2980 9719 3601
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72680 13370 147 707 369 141 125 0
OW 74 409 49 363 229 47 32 0
VODI 0 207 32 370 298 119 48 0
ODI 0 66 14 180 415 134 70 0
CDI 0 23 9 117 649 364 93 0
VCDI 0 1 2 86 781 3073 9606 3601

Date: 2020-01-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72388 13574 146 635 281 75 10 0
OW 76 376 69 396 221 57 3 0
VODI 0 105 23 435 386 102 18 0
ODI 0 27 2 187 412 192 33 0
CDI 0 5 5 78 764 300 127 0
VCDI 0 0 0 48 791 4317 8795 3641
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72388 13301 147 664 462 149 76 0
OW 76 414 48 383 173 98 38 0
VODI 0 244 26 338 279 177 41 0
ODI 0 94 11 171 331 164 61 0
CDI 0 32 11 124 612 252 40 0
VCDI 0 2 2 99 998 4203 8730 3641

Date: 2020-01-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71946 13872 143 513 270 119 12 0
OW 76 526 71 414 203 43 18 0
VODI 0 252 37 433 332 115 25 0
ODI 0 101 15 279 403 146 73 0
CDI 0 42 8 164 629 302 180 0
VCDI 0 15 2 134 1195 3637 7497 4858
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71962 13539 134 525 394 188 115 0
OW 60 577 50 319 207 98 30 0
VODI 0 352 50 372 198 144 81 0
ODI 0 156 22 270 272 97 73 0
CDI 0 95 7 177 518 202 40 0
VCDI 0 89 13 274 1443 3633 7466 4858


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