Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2019-12-26

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-12-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 344 4 87 131 0 0 0
OW 0 375 16 231 275 19 0 0
VODI 0 151 22 221 525 149 0 0
ODI 0 45 12 111 275 458 7 0
CDI 0 53 6 54 304 747 92 0
VCDI 0 5 2 6 264 3702 12150 25023
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-12-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 17 2 2 42 44 0 0
OW 0 165 7 84 119 125 0 0
VODI 0 163 17 132 465 348 0 0
ODI 0 40 6 94 330 428 19 0
CDI 0 0 0 16 306 908 108 0
VCDI 0 0 0 20 182 3268 11893 26516
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-12-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 53 3 48 2 27 0 0
OW 0 88 9 67 80 102 0 0
VODI 0 19 10 123 245 159 11 0
ODI 0 0 0 49 399 356 45 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 318 711 328 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 125 2458 11607 28424
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-12-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 3 2 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 107 52 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 113 98 12 63 0
ODI 0 0 0 24 137 172 68 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 227 725 136 1
VCDI 0 0 0 0 49 2660 12738 28479
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 5 5 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 94 43 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 114 94 14 61 0
ODI 0 0 0 34 132 154 75 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 235 646 165 1
VCDI 0 0 0 0 56 2755 12704 28479

Date: 2019-12-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 17 35 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 97 128 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 29 148 14 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 274 352 13 1
VCDI 0 0 0 0 154 3600 14825 26177
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 7 23 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 92 112 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 40 174 17 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 264 335 16 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 164 3613 14822 26178

Date: 2019-12-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 4 3 36 29 0 0 0
VODI 0 26 8 122 115 0 0 0
ODI 0 1 1 28 158 12 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 25 427 434 116 0
VCDI 0 0 0 18 180 2837 13532 27754
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 1 8 0 0 0
VODI 0 12 3 39 36 0 0 0
ODI 0 16 7 105 95 29 0 0
CDI 0 3 2 46 203 197 34 1
VCDI 0 0 0 38 567 3057 13614 27753

Date: 2020-01-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 11 4 60 68 0 0 0
ODI 0 14 4 49 129 5 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 197 215 22 1
VCDI 0 0 0 0 203 2767 12625 29478
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 12 36 0 0 0
ODI 0 23 7 48 65 26 0 0
CDI 0 2 1 57 166 248 43 13
VCDI 0 0 0 0 336 2713 12604 29466

Date: 2020-01-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 8 39 0 0 0
ODI 0 9 5 81 122 3 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 43 143 94 10 6
VCDI 0 0 0 1 527 2297 11270 31206
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 28 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 12 54 14 2 0
CDI 0 9 5 79 132 206 71 29
VCDI 0 0 0 42 619 2174 11207 31183


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