Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2019-12-12

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-12-16

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 106 1 5 0 0 0 0
OW 0 26 3 8 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 5 2 28 2 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 17 18 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 31 4 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 34 496 7526 28581
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 97 0 4 0 0 0 0
OW 0 32 3 5 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 8 3 31 2 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 17 22 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 25 7 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 36 493 7526 28581

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 97 674 2362
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 97 674 2362

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 4 21 5 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 103 34 8 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 109 318 2129 7251
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 9 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 10 27 21 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 223 321 2116 7251

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 637 47 466 196 19 0 0
OW 0 41 21 211 389 56 0 0
VODI 0 2 3 120 296 306 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 159 323 14 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 22 386 98 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 338 1470 31
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 556 38 490 424 96 0 0
OW 0 97 11 154 204 106 0 0
VODI 0 27 22 66 148 176 2 0
ODI 0 0 0 62 114 181 20 0
CDI 0 0 0 26 129 293 98 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 45 576 1462 31

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 27 2 11
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 17 634 6553
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 43
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 42 636 6521

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5326
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5325

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 140 3 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 19 2 52 8 0 0 0
VODI 0 11 4 24 72 0 0 0
ODI 0 2 1 17 48 45 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 18 42 147 17 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 51 247 3613 1748
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 69 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 28 0 10 12 0 0 0
VODI 0 33 3 40 43 3 0 0
ODI 0 26 3 6 37 46 0 0
CDI 0 16 4 21 31 89 11 1
VCDI 0 0 0 34 98 301 3619 1747

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5292 3232 50 178 77 6 0 0
OW 8 76 5 76 64 12 0 0
VODI 2 12 3 50 122 26 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 8 73 51 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 57 124 7 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 26 199 1489 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5299 3207 44 173 147 39 0 0
OW 2 72 5 37 62 47 3 0
VODI 1 20 8 72 49 96 15 0
ODI 0 15 1 17 49 60 51 0
CDI 0 6 1 14 60 36 96 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 52 140 1332 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5669 3184 16 51 0 0 0 0
OW 0 132 10 34 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 62 7 93 17 0 0 0
ODI 0 30 2 45 51 0 0 0
CDI 0 23 3 29 87 30 0 0
VCDI 0 10 5 52 180 603 1269 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5669 3054 20 59 0 0 0 0
OW 0 137 3 35 8 0 0 0
VODI 0 114 2 39 20 0 0 0
ODI 0 55 8 32 36 1 0 0
CDI 0 41 2 49 35 30 0 0
VCDI 0 40 8 90 238 602 1269 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9917 2189 26 137 191 107 30 0
OW 0 12 11 34 10 15 4 0
VODI 0 0 0 43 28 14 2 0
ODI 0 0 0 10 33 63 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 6 62 18 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 20 6 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9917 2135 25 136 201 123 35 0
OW 0 31 5 9 8 17 1 0
VODI 0 29 1 27 14 27 0 0
ODI 0 6 6 20 52 43 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 32 23 5 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 46 8 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 969 31 177 39 0 0 0
OW 0 4 2 37 110 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 15 125 39 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 4 59 86 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 47 280 33 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 15 691 3015 24
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 952 28 116 30 0 0 0
OW 0 19 3 70 47 4 0 0
VODI 0 2 3 35 116 14 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 11 86 45 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 76 136 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 40 897 3047 24

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 7 2 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 84 11 119 24 0 0 0
VODI 0 82 11 216 157 52 0 0
ODI 0 51 4 47 211 354 7 0
CDI 0 50 4 13 151 804 108 19
VCDI 0 7 5 7 52 1398 3826 704
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 3 0 18 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 79 12 134 66 101 0 0
ODI 0 71 10 144 163 251 0 0
CDI 0 59 7 95 194 686 54 10
VCDI 0 69 8 11 168 1570 3887 713

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 15578 3306 20 63 8 0 0 0
OW 6 230 19 169 96 0 0 0
VODI 0 25 11 85 255 0 0 0
ODI 0 5 1 23 210 0 0 0
CDI 0 3 0 0 42 17 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 25 12 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 15582 2956 10 55 5 0 0 0
OW 2 354 18 54 31 0 0 0
VODI 0 235 17 117 87 0 0 0
ODI 0 21 6 88 275 0 0 0
CDI 0 3 0 26 190 8 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 48 21 0 0


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