Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2019-12-12

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-12-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 426 4590 82 364 87 131 0 0
OW 3 421 39 794 596 248 0 0
VODI 0 74 3 226 1140 351 12 0
ODI 0 26 7 42 449 431 82 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 255 554 182 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 99 2661 9014 22470
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-12-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72 3440 84 332 113 16 0 0
OW 0 657 49 466 561 269 5 0
VODI 0 95 17 311 553 1145 128 0
ODI 0 32 2 85 512 624 79 0
CDI 0 13 6 24 321 480 187 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 134 3158 10738 21154
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-12-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 33 2901 94 627 144 0 0 0
OW 6 388 35 436 362 8 0 0
VODI 0 73 12 346 763 303 0 0
ODI 0 12 6 68 657 784 11 0
CDI 0 3 1 38 338 1927 117 6
VCDI 0 0 0 20 237 4680 11520 18910
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-12-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 2031 62 454 207 0 0 0
OW 0 608 32 256 347 96 0 0
VODI 0 245 18 325 550 273 0 0
ODI 0 52 5 80 534 851 34 0
CDI 0 9 5 70 314 1406 325 2
VCDI 0 0 0 113 436 5012 12147 18967
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 2135 65 480 268 20 0 0
OW 0 478 29 208 263 88 0 0
VODI 0 274 18 332 495 242 0 0
ODI 0 46 4 93 505 761 36 0
CDI 0 12 6 71 403 1537 308 4
VCDI 0 0 0 114 454 4990 12162 18965

Date: 2019-12-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1206 71 516 197 4 0 0
OW 0 368 27 271 344 51 0 0
VODI 0 173 39 378 425 419 0 0
ODI 0 54 8 111 477 527 4 0
CDI 0 54 2 3 287 1316 273 5
VCDI 0 15 8 19 546 4170 13395 20103
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1275 71 552 289 19 0 0
OW 0 322 32 228 254 52 0 0
VODI 0 146 35 366 341 386 0 0
ODI 0 55 7 133 478 481 2 0
CDI 0 49 1 0 378 1298 255 4
VCDI 0 23 9 19 536 4251 13415 20104

Date: 2019-12-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 987 50 471 196 19 0 0
OW 0 307 39 353 413 56 0 0
VODI 0 108 25 379 453 358 0 0
ODI 0 56 5 68 398 684 21 0
CDI 0 53 4 13 302 1334 220 19
VCDI 0 7 5 7 197 2718 12907 22634
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 727 39 495 424 96 0 0
OW 0 335 13 181 208 106 0 0
VODI 0 239 45 224 214 277 2 0
ODI 0 86 16 252 279 441 20 0
CDI 0 62 7 125 341 1014 174 10
VCDI 0 69 8 14 493 3235 12952 22643

Date: 2019-12-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 835 18 269 214 11 0 0
OW 0 292 19 197 501 48 0 0
VODI 0 92 21 203 517 135 0 0
ODI 0 55 6 64 572 272 14 0
CDI 0 56 8 39 544 679 61 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 519 3490 12280 23830
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 605 13 271 425 79 0 0
OW 0 281 12 138 419 71 0 0
VODI 0 198 21 157 337 117 0 0
ODI 0 109 10 136 366 276 13 0
CDI 0 90 10 61 619 609 275 17
VCDI 0 47 6 14 701 3483 12067 23813

Date: 2019-12-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 344 4 87 131 0 0 0
OW 0 375 16 231 275 19 0 0
VODI 0 151 22 221 525 149 0 0
ODI 0 45 12 111 275 458 7 0
CDI 0 53 6 54 304 747 92 0
VCDI 0 5 2 6 264 3702 12150 25023
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 205 5 141 131 0 0 0
OW 0 272 5 150 301 43 0 0
VODI 0 209 10 141 500 265 0 0
ODI 0 120 13 96 196 383 4 0
CDI 0 127 23 126 292 637 284 41
VCDI 0 40 6 56 354 3747 11961 24982


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