Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2019-10-31

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-10-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15889 7054 100 475 165 4 0 0
OW 0 171 30 363 348 42 0 0
VODI 0 27 8 106 469 137 1 0
ODI 0 0 0 39 194 277 10 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 91 546 78 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 25 803 6893 11517
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-10-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14630 7979 94 403 102 1 0 0
OW 0 245 50 422 298 24 0 0
VODI 0 28 14 206 468 121 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 61 280 259 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 16 155 448 35 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 41 1134 6978 11373
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-10-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14335 8329 89 364 62 0 0 0
OW 5 403 52 279 140 8 0 0
VODI 0 51 21 309 365 34 0 0
ODI 0 10 2 88 493 58 0 0
CDI 0 4 3 23 391 331 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 10 157 2417 7937 9095
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-10-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13884 8245 99 309 9 0 0 0
OW 15 599 45 329 143 0 0 0
VODI 4 131 29 308 387 9 0 0
ODI 0 15 8 80 468 66 0 0
CDI 0 7 2 64 347 341 36 0
VCDI 0 0 0 7 208 2497 9366 7809
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13890 8469 111 367 51 0 0 0
OW 10 417 38 282 93 0 0 0
VODI 3 93 26 294 330 2 0 0
ODI 0 12 6 86 498 86 0 0
CDI 0 6 2 62 402 295 30 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 188 2530 9372 7809

Date: 2019-11-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 11775 9200 124 498 214 0 0 0
OW 3 495 58 609 221 18 0 0
VODI 0 154 32 342 423 93 0 0
ODI 0 20 2 78 333 189 0 0
CDI 0 6 0 30 229 432 63 6
VCDI 0 0 0 5 104 2052 8466 9592
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 11775 9389 138 696 276 4 0 0
OW 3 348 47 406 131 27 0 0
VODI 0 109 30 362 382 55 0 0
ODI 0 18 1 73 370 218 22 0
CDI 0 10 0 22 242 424 73 5
VCDI 0 1 0 3 123 2056 8434 9593

Date: 2019-11-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 11237 8603 110 510 286 42 0 0
OW 6 294 61 567 140 23 2 0
VODI 0 31 16 517 561 72 6 0
ODI 0 9 2 29 828 125 9 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 228 812 82 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 9 1342 9059 10248
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 11234 8540 129 978 619 113 9 0
OW 9 259 24 374 309 72 12 0
VODI 0 134 28 201 466 134 26 0
ODI 0 3 8 53 416 284 46 0
CDI 0 1 0 17 215 356 191 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 27 1457 8874 10248

Date: 2019-11-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9434 9523 137 757 372 10 0 0
OW 10 93 36 455 386 28 0 0
VODI 0 6 3 393 706 159 0 0
ODI 0 1 0 30 550 441 6 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 156 746 101 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 40 899 8046 12342
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9401 9452 142 977 657 184 0 0
OW 39 155 23 392 449 208 1 0
VODI 4 16 11 215 619 263 24 0
ODI 0 0 0 44 303 357 56 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 177 562 169 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 5 709 7903 12342

Date: 2019-11-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9816 8323 115 673 465 66 0 0
OW 46 278 30 301 378 125 8 0
VODI 20 75 15 254 637 145 11 0
ODI 1 10 0 114 664 385 19 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 127 604 56 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 7 1565 7020 13513
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9736 8188 116 832 762 279 12 0
OW 121 383 30 170 516 120 30 0
VODI 24 101 12 236 501 257 48 0
ODI 2 14 2 88 294 421 68 0
CDI 0 0 0 16 160 580 192 4
VCDI 0 0 0 0 45 1233 6764 13509


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