Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2019-07-11

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-07-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 87605 26711 425 3210 985 25 0 0
OW 5 796 211 2764 2464 64 0 0
VODI 7 84 55 2263 4250 266 0 0
ODI 0 11 5 411 7095 1622 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 62 4561 14589 489 0
VCDI 0 1 0 1 182 20471 5356 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-07-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 88240 28025 446 3244 994 22 0 0
OW 0 1106 224 2928 2149 97 1 0
VODI 0 120 69 1910 4164 466 3 0
ODI 0 21 4 384 6771 1876 15 0
CDI 0 0 0 59 4935 14078 717 0
VCDI 0 1 0 0 672 20959 2348 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-07-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 89955 28356 444 2978 1113 9 0 0
OW 0 932 250 1978 1226 12 0 0
VODI 0 66 32 2341 3884 63 0 0
ODI 0 1 1 276 10582 1246 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 20 3453 17152 1030 0
VCDI 0 1 0 0 411 16724 2512 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-07-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 91462 28350 442 3313 728 8 0 0
OW 0 939 195 2446 1105 7 0 0
VODI 0 90 45 2825 4462 122 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 376 9228 1438 110 0
CDI 0 1 0 13 2931 17392 1770 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 538 12567 4145 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 91462 28590 474 3867 972 8 0 0
OW 0 704 163 1923 969 10 0 0
VODI 0 84 45 2834 4812 139 0 0
ODI 0 1 0 331 8550 1415 24 0
CDI 0 1 0 18 3124 16953 1790 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 565 13009 4211 0

Date: 2019-07-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 93247 27609 454 3548 767 12 0 0
OW 0 976 197 2903 930 24 0 0
VODI 0 125 38 2745 5230 161 0 0
ODI 0 7 2 291 8391 1543 4 0
CDI 0 0 0 47 3292 18827 927 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 590 10430 3731 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 93247 27773 477 4115 856 11 0 0
OW 0 799 169 2393 1074 22 0 0
VODI 0 134 43 2690 5361 143 0 0
ODI 0 11 2 276 7967 1754 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 60 3309 18217 995 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 633 10850 3665 0

Date: 2019-07-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94532 27703 480 3440 318 9 0 0
OW 0 681 182 2150 334 9 0 0
VODI 0 45 15 3426 2313 39 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 137 12886 524 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1812 23649 2212 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 547 7541 2064 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94532 27445 505 4558 723 16 0 0
OW 0 848 139 2551 2119 32 0 0
VODI 0 123 30 1722 5472 349 0 0
ODI 0 13 3 285 6608 2330 369 0
CDI 0 0 0 37 2693 19654 2296 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 595 9390 1611 0

Date: 2019-07-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95985 28166 423 2896 192 1 0 0
OW 0 767 183 2501 358 15 0 0
VODI 0 147 28 3243 3513 44 0 0
ODI 0 12 2 135 10883 1428 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 15 2168 24060 2326 0
VCDI 0 0 0 24 496 5825 1207 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95980 27854 443 4105 622 4 0 0
OW 5 950 148 3116 2351 37 0 0
VODI 0 204 38 1390 5287 410 47 0
ODI 0 79 5 141 6269 2743 297 0
CDI 0 5 2 27 2589 20915 2027 0
VCDI 0 0 0 35 492 7264 1167 0

Date: 2019-07-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 100603 24372 356 2779 241 1 0 0
OW 47 1332 173 2536 444 28 0 0
VODI 40 174 37 3150 4398 86 0 0
ODI 0 13 2 243 9033 2458 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 25 1528 24758 2280 0
VCDI 0 0 0 26 469 2018 3276 122
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 100599 24058 401 4482 1046 30 0 0
OW 91 1304 114 2632 2609 53 0 0
VODI 0 454 49 1365 4897 777 0 0
ODI 0 75 4 210 4950 3920 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 61 2131 21846 2365 0
VCDI 0 0 0 9 480 2723 3191 122


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