Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2019-06-06

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-06-10

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 42 0 4 2 15 6 0
OW 0 16 6 9 11 5 2 0
VODI 0 18 4 39 46 15 8 0
ODI 0 0 2 27 94 42 17 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 170 523 334 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 154 5657 29629
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 38 0 5 10 23 10 0
OW 0 13 6 10 30 12 14 0
VODI 0 16 1 29 40 40 30 0
ODI 0 9 4 23 65 81 140 0
CDI 0 0 1 17 178 532 828 2
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 66 5002 29627

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 230 5 6 0 0 0 0
OW 0 2 0 1 0 2 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 1 1 3 4 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 3 10 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 10 71 19 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 225 606 667 1267
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 230 5 7 0 0 0 0
OW 0 2 0 1 1 5 4 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 1 16 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 12 66 90 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 225 605 596 1267

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 83 1962 58 285 18 0 0 0
OW 0 117 17 143 26 0 0 0
VODI 0 45 12 308 191 0 0 0
ODI 0 2 2 72 380 14 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 37 424 673 181 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 324 2216 2392
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 83 1998 61 350 51 0 0 0
OW 0 63 9 146 91 0 0 0
VODI 0 55 13 166 265 11 0 0
ODI 0 10 6 101 157 66 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 82 475 713 381 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 221 2014 2392

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 166 1654 12 28 5 0 0 0
OW 8 133 24 83 11 0 0 0
VODI 0 11 9 161 39 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 37 202 28 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 198 389 61 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 107 1765 516
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 167 1526 13 29 9 0 0 0
OW 7 143 4 47 18 2 0 0
VODI 0 94 17 82 38 33 0 0
ODI 0 31 6 88 104 34 12 0
CDI 0 4 5 66 279 338 243 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 7 121 1571 516

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 1 6 5 0 0 0
ODI 0 6 1 37 58 7 4 0
CDI 0 0 0 18 372 282 94 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 218 1487 4590 56
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 0 2 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 7 2 23 36 6 4 0
CDI 0 0 0 25 100 135 126 0
VCDI 0 0 0 13 517 1635 4558 56

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 659 26 66 0 0 0 0
OW 0 38 22 150 7 1 0 0
VODI 0 13 6 90 109 12 1 0
ODI 0 6 6 69 143 66 3 0
CDI 0 31 4 99 352 525 96 0
VCDI 0 18 4 33 92 452 2098 29
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 416 12 36 1 0 0 0
OW 0 125 17 68 5 5 0 0
VODI 0 106 16 108 19 13 3 0
ODI 0 58 9 75 152 47 28 0
CDI 0 16 7 113 288 436 233 0
VCDI 0 44 7 107 238 555 1934 29

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 731 45 359 62 1 1 0
OW 0 79 19 162 90 5 0 0
VODI 0 6 8 233 422 28 1 0
ODI 0 0 0 31 743 259 10 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 151 1827 429 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 40 589 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 751 55 471 247 12 1 0
OW 0 35 8 151 271 88 9 0
VODI 0 30 6 97 568 362 40 0
ODI 0 0 3 63 250 903 234 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 132 745 621 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 50 125 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5823 3922 61 134 3 0 0 0
OW 0 11 5 163 29 1 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 49 145 9 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 2 205 61 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 21 428 72 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 17 167 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5823 3930 63 253 42 0 0 0
OW 0 3 3 86 120 14 3 0
VODI 0 0 0 9 200 95 10 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 40 223 83 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1 184 146 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5922 2698 20 172 15 0 0 0
OW 0 7 5 136 58 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 68 146 10 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 238 124 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 133 1323 162 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 47 407 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5922 2700 22 241 54 0 0 0
OW 0 5 3 98 110 16 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 38 194 133 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 145 449 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 87 901 543 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 5 23 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8751 3393 36 261 82 0 0 0
OW 0 2 4 58 53 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 39 79 5 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 3 134 41 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 20 27 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8751 3395 40 292 127 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 55 67 16 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 14 91 24 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 83 33 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 2053 61 344 93 5 0 0
OW 0 52 16 166 97 1 0 0
VODI 0 0 4 142 232 10 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 3 459 94 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 39 1267 223 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 25 417 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 2035 66 430 236 8 0 0
OW 0 63 8 127 210 20 0 0
VODI 0 7 7 88 227 145 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 10 227 350 9 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 20 878 496 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1 135 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 333 34 385 194 4 0 0
OW 0 16 8 232 207 9 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 166 897 48 0 0
ODI 0 22 2 36 1025 559 0 0
CDI 0 29 6 91 209 1761 317 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 15 1508 473 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 338 37 497 560 47 0 0
OW 0 11 5 229 829 60 4 0
VODI 0 0 0 42 501 371 29 0
ODI 0 7 2 32 279 560 98 0
CDI 0 44 7 110 319 757 335 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 59 2094 324 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 15031 3659 64 293 104 1 0 0
OW 0 45 12 105 61 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 3 52 113 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 5 93 43 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 19 256 145 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 22 78 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 15031 3675 69 349 137 1 0 0
OW 0 30 8 74 84 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 2 32 120 17 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 33 83 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 16 180 159 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 44 64 0


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