Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2019-05-30

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-05-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73812 17837 299 1582 643 140 1 0
OW 58 491 92 1318 1061 158 2 0
VODI 0 163 25 738 2334 565 47 0
ODI 0 78 21 230 1962 1146 431 5
CDI 0 57 18 385 2117 4228 1767 41
VCDI 0 74 30 238 1103 7260 29775 34716
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-05-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74744 17159 290 1779 845 189 6 0
OW 61 498 83 1182 1463 242 2 0
VODI 0 193 37 667 2282 634 180 0
ODI 0 134 20 281 1496 1209 380 0
CDI 0 108 34 440 2017 4157 3133 25
VCDI 0 192 30 264 1360 7780 27090 34362
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-05-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75367 17601 328 1890 597 92 1 0
OW 60 460 103 1555 774 77 5 0
VODI 0 153 31 1199 2070 211 14 0
ODI 0 73 28 288 2628 902 188 0
CDI 0 97 19 402 2206 5613 1992 30
VCDI 0 139 20 112 800 5317 26966 36640
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-05-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75617 18283 338 2019 603 94 2 0
OW 50 545 134 1831 836 110 7 0
VODI 0 207 41 1046 2205 358 45 0
ODI 0 114 31 301 2090 1010 376 0
CDI 0 144 29 443 2186 5816 2495 1
VCDI 0 128 18 165 749 4625 25609 36347
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75617 18389 385 2461 807 106 2 0
OW 50 437 87 1449 705 102 9 0
VODI 0 216 40 986 2058 294 56 0
ODI 0 102 27 299 2132 1151 449 0
CDI 0 100 30 415 2163 5792 2407 2
VCDI 0 177 22 195 804 4568 25611 36346

Date: 2019-06-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76743 18236 324 2121 727 129 6 0
OW 47 716 144 1503 1008 162 10 0
VODI 0 256 44 935 2268 547 119 0
ODI 0 160 34 377 1711 1179 587 0
CDI 0 191 42 423 2312 5340 3058 0
VCDI 0 113 20 193 724 4392 26081 34066
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76743 18435 382 2500 882 170 9 0
OW 47 510 86 1209 1000 137 11 0
VODI 0 266 47 851 1985 517 143 0
ODI 0 145 32 356 1862 1280 666 0
CDI 0 141 37 426 2279 5359 2983 0
VCDI 0 175 24 210 742 4286 26049 34066

Date: 2019-06-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76943 18973 336 2027 547 112 0 0
OW 47 889 155 1374 513 79 4 0
VODI 0 281 73 1359 1763 165 28 0
ODI 0 102 34 355 3515 806 95 0
CDI 0 50 19 329 2116 7322 1760 0
VCDI 0 0 0 8 409 4477 31315 28668
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76947 18894 393 2787 1079 241 5 0
OW 43 516 66 952 1154 191 32 0
VODI 0 311 47 690 2248 643 323 0
ODI 0 179 45 331 1480 1649 705 0
CDI 0 261 48 511 2058 5440 4012 0
VCDI 0 134 18 181 844 4797 28125 28668

Date: 2019-06-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76964 20038 404 2284 701 96 0 0
OW 43 636 120 1464 822 112 9 0
VODI 0 226 49 1001 2722 323 41 0
ODI 0 94 28 349 2256 1640 229 0
CDI 0 71 18 335 1913 6384 3321 0
VCDI 0 0 0 35 473 4736 28351 28760
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76977 19440 426 2995 1457 251 17 0
OW 30 507 45 774 1270 256 103 0
VODI 0 402 42 555 2194 900 499 0
ODI 0 258 34 415 1271 1998 930 0
CDI 0 402 59 557 1970 5170 4811 4
VCDI 0 56 13 172 725 4716 25591 28756

Date: 2019-06-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77577 20243 445 2437 767 75 0 0
OW 30 604 115 1462 1154 139 2 0
VODI 0 246 51 887 2847 719 66 0
ODI 0 91 32 334 1738 2252 501 0
CDI 0 57 21 324 1701 5939 3669 1
VCDI 0 0 0 28 475 4434 24022 31563
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77579 19512 458 3145 1859 316 57 0
OW 28 502 54 759 1249 469 129 0
VODI 0 422 33 456 2014 1353 440 0
ODI 0 332 46 362 1056 2260 1157 0
CDI 0 462 66 651 1891 4975 4796 10
VCDI 0 11 7 99 613 4185 21681 31554


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