Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2019-03-21

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-03-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 3 8 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 17 100 18 5
VCDI 0 0 0 0 86 1410 8376 35843
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-03-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 5 13 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 57 125 54 48
VCDI 0 0 0 0 127 1633 9746 34053
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-03-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 7 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 21 77 55 33
VCDI 0 0 0 0 144 1598 8587 35339
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-03-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 3 59 26 33
VCDI 0 0 0 0 12 1422 9265 35046
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 3 52 20 47
VCDI 0 0 0 0 12 1429 9271 35032

Date: 2019-03-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 9 2 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 46 135 19 37
VCDI 0 0 0 0 85 2314 11177 32042
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 6 3 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 51 133 17 30
VCDI 0 0 0 0 83 2315 11179 32049

Date: 2019-03-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 13 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 42 63 9 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 169 232 14 17
VCDI 0 0 0 3 325 2936 10315 31725
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 12 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 30 41 10 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 140 207 17 10
VCDI 0 0 0 1 366 2987 10311 31732

Date: 2019-03-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 22 38 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 30 25 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 68 40 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 125 199 32 18
VCDI 0 0 0 0 144 2164 10529 32431
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 24 32 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 22 18 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 27 25 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 92 105 22 13
VCDI 0 0 0 0 224 2286 10539 32436

Date: 2019-03-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 43 59 1 0
VODI 0 0 0 3 29 37 1 0
ODI 0 0 0 2 50 55 12 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 168 154 105 6
VCDI 0 0 0 0 114 2489 13512 29026
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 10 13 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 35 36 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 14 31 1 0
ODI 0 0 0 3 59 51 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 124 134 52 32
VCDI 0 0 0 0 162 2529 13576 29000


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