Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2018-12-06

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-11-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82343 10860 94 393 198 106 0 0
OW 50 250 54 300 95 23 0 0
VODI 0 96 27 339 206 20 0 0
ODI 0 31 7 184 268 58 0 0
CDI 0 8 5 152 344 256 13 0
VCDI 0 0 0 56 898 2318 4866 4182
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-12-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83465 9571 84 285 212 171 23 0
OW 50 356 41 310 63 27 1 0
VODI 0 176 28 304 152 26 0 0
ODI 0 51 14 211 214 43 0 0
CDI 0 39 5 194 388 224 36 0
VCDI 0 12 2 179 955 2267 5089 3832
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-12-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82186 11028 96 415 201 161 0 0
OW 50 270 41 285 66 21 0 0
VODI 0 115 24 320 217 34 0 0
ODI 0 43 7 162 328 52 0 0
CDI 0 19 11 137 418 371 13 0
VCDI 0 1 2 86 757 2432 4917 3814
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-12-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82311 10630 83 388 197 192 0 0
OW 54 347 41 263 96 17 0 0
VODI 0 172 28 314 245 31 0 0
ODI 0 67 13 186 300 65 0 0
CDI 0 27 10 139 333 297 8 0
VCDI 0 7 7 209 409 2386 6882 2346
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82312 10551 87 393 206 191 0 0
OW 53 386 33 237 90 16 0 0
VODI 0 212 30 294 228 34 0 0
ODI 0 56 15 193 272 57 0 0
CDI 0 32 11 147 343 307 8 0
VCDI 0 13 6 235 441 2383 6882 2346

Date: 2018-12-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81788 10599 94 407 202 217 13 0
OW 59 377 24 240 91 16 0 0
VODI 0 202 30 314 284 33 0 0
ODI 0 113 12 159 340 52 0 0
CDI 0 36 9 157 372 423 2 0
VCDI 0 7 4 158 278 1805 6302 3881
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81791 10528 91 409 208 218 13 0
OW 56 384 26 232 98 13 0 0
VODI 0 244 27 267 252 39 0 0
ODI 0 105 12 179 322 50 0 0
CDI 0 51 11 149 336 407 3 0
VCDI 0 22 6 199 351 1819 6301 3881

Date: 2018-12-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81338 10977 77 411 223 202 19 0
OW 55 293 62 350 81 10 0 0
VODI 0 102 25 395 379 23 0 0
ODI 0 48 13 221 479 63 0 0
CDI 0 29 2 67 410 392 13 0
VCDI 0 7 0 5 161 1987 7843 2338
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81334 10663 82 404 231 217 19 0
OW 59 369 32 246 57 10 0 0
VODI 0 226 37 276 236 29 0 0
ODI 0 58 8 205 304 35 0 0
CDI 0 60 9 165 451 250 13 0
VCDI 0 80 11 153 454 2136 7843 2338

Date: 2018-12-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80842 11412 114 426 172 140 22 0
OW 69 167 40 315 103 11 0 0
VODI 0 102 22 262 281 21 0 0
ODI 0 41 12 131 357 46 0 0
CDI 0 22 4 138 459 292 9 0
VCDI 0 0 0 89 662 2335 6888 3094
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80839 11117 94 320 183 149 22 0
OW 72 324 44 245 72 10 0 0
VODI 0 153 30 362 184 22 0 0
ODI 0 80 10 144 343 38 0 0
CDI 0 57 10 107 540 196 1 0
VCDI 0 13 4 183 712 2430 6896 3094

Date: 2018-12-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80662 11485 131 417 152 121 0 0
OW 60 175 45 323 100 14 0 0
VODI 0 119 20 292 298 9 0 0
ODI 0 30 4 128 350 56 0 0
CDI 0 2 1 115 448 351 6 0
VCDI 0 0 0 14 615 2179 5466 4912
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80649 11150 99 346 156 137 0 0
OW 73 321 63 258 63 5 0 0
VODI 0 190 22 307 247 15 0 0
ODI 0 124 15 176 313 60 0 0
CDI 0 26 2 127 435 254 8 0
VCDI 0 0 0 75 749 2259 5464 4912


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