Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2018-10-18

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-10-22

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 577 3596 42 185 177 0 0 0
OW 0 263 56 404 230 22 0 0
VODI 0 37 12 379 944 67 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 54 702 762 40 0
CDI 0 0 0 25 117 1641 1165 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 103 7281 15577 2443
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 577 3392 29 205 406 55 0 0
OW 0 357 43 311 219 0 0 0
VODI 0 97 28 294 594 69 0 0
ODI 0 42 5 127 531 500 37 0
CDI 0 8 6 84 334 1030 523 0
VCDI 0 0 0 26 189 8119 16222 2443

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1 1 26 21 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 47 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 133 15 2 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 30 67 14 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 46 21 10
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 248 1082 1369
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1 1 26 48 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 64 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 98 40 7 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 21 41 9 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 44 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 251 1103 1379

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 269 17 53 20 53 0 0
OW 0 41 12 57 135 316 0 0
VODI 0 11 5 141 321 554 38 0
ODI 0 0 0 16 168 387 160 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 190 123 244 9
VCDI 0 0 0 0 114 345 4118 2060
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 282 17 55 85 505 0 0
OW 0 27 9 40 218 445 39 0
VODI 0 12 8 75 137 270 184 0
ODI 0 0 0 43 92 127 120 0
CDI 0 0 0 41 143 57 197 9
VCDI 0 0 0 18 273 374 4020 2060

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3650 1613 14 103 139 30 0 0
OW 0 34 2 0 28 8 0 0
VODI 0 10 3 19 1 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3650 1600 14 103 168 38 0 0
OW 0 31 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 26 5 15 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 928 2179 35 106 20 0 0 0
OW 0 216 26 292 142 1 0 0
VODI 0 13 8 317 495 173 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 6 277 511 4 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1 855 593 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 4 44 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 928 1935 39 189 63 0 0 0
OW 0 271 17 255 242 44 0 0
VODI 0 188 11 211 399 338 0 0
ODI 0 14 2 45 150 245 71 0
CDI 0 0 0 21 71 554 157 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 10 363 413 0

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1204 3012 13 28 0 0 0 0
OW 3 427 28 102 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 30 4 138 160 21 0 0
ODI 0 1 2 4 26 110 6 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1207 3165 23 38 0 0 0 0
OW 0 234 12 128 32 0 0 0
VODI 0 66 9 93 101 45 0 0
ODI 0 5 2 10 54 83 5 0
CDI 0 0 1 3 0 3 7 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4185 1999 10 108 1 0 0 0
OW 22 6 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4203 2002 10 108 1 0 0 0
OW 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10315 1003 10 3 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10315 1003 10 3 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6975 2615 21 112 77 6 0 0
OW 0 16 7 113 55 5 0 0
VODI 0 0 2 81 88 24 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 13 87 24 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 6 85 79 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 167 1014 23 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6975 2516 12 65 87 7 0 0
OW 0 73 7 66 38 14 0 0
VODI 0 31 7 93 28 25 0 0
ODI 0 10 2 61 50 18 0 0
CDI 0 1 2 36 102 44 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 254 1044 23 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12721 267 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12721 267 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2059 2090 31 250 102 0 0 0
OW 0 18 4 142 228 12 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 15 328 47 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 4 82 112 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 69 89 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 46 72 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2059 2093 29 255 53 0 0 0
OW 0 15 6 121 127 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 28 288 11 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 7 178 37 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 120 147 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 45 111 72 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5310 2854 17 20 0 0 0 0
OW 6 80 13 73 18 0 0 0
VODI 0 10 0 33 120 13 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 11 9 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5313 2734 17 26 0 0 0 0
OW 3 148 10 45 17 0 0 0
VODI 0 62 3 55 94 12 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 37 10 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 19944 226 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 3 1 2 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 23 2 1 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 5 2 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 19944 229 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 4 2 1 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 13 1 2 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 11 2 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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