Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2018-10-11

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-10-15

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 631 4093 72 404 3 0 0 0
OW 0 527 53 357 36 0 0 0
VODI 0 199 49 689 578 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 100 1411 155 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 463 3211 112 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 12 7628 14036 2077
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 631 3984 93 616 103 0 0 0
OW 0 696 54 520 459 21 0 0
VODI 0 139 28 343 1331 495 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 58 368 1415 157 0
CDI 0 0 0 14 194 1397 547 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 48 7670 13444 2077

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 34 10 121 35 0 0 0
OW 0 29 8 72 18 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 23 17 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 2 18 12 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 37 325 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 24 591 1504 253
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 62 17 171 47 0 0 0
OW 0 1 1 33 25 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 12 9 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 2 5 4 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 25 285 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 38 639 1504 253

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1114 70 682 357 88 0 0
OW 0 23 11 112 172 75 12 0
VODI 0 0 0 93 261 124 16 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 230 102 34 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 99 348 100 7
VCDI 0 0 0 0 5 318 3634 1895
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1132 73 738 561 219 14 0
OW 0 5 8 109 113 96 23 0
VODI 0 0 0 35 188 97 76 0
ODI 0 0 0 5 142 95 76 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 108 213 154 17
VCDI 0 0 0 0 12 335 3453 1885

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4004 1390 12 235 13 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4004 1296 12 235 13 0 0 0
OW 0 94 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1339 2934 32 74 9 0 0 0
OW 0 270 20 148 53 0 0 0
VODI 0 37 18 191 215 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 7 579 64 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 63 1104 89 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1339 3006 47 240 209 10 0 0
OW 0 183 16 107 198 36 0 0
VODI 0 52 7 73 451 247 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 61 779 89 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 96 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3290 1939 2 3 0 0 0 0
OW 0 68 9 5 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 1 7 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3288 2009 12 15 0 0 0 0
OW 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5872 448 2 9 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5872 448 2 9 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10798 526 6 1 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10798 526 6 1 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7309 2438 13 64 84 0 0 0
OW 0 54 16 99 14 0 0 0
VODI 0 3 0 112 56 5 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 13 118 14 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 91 81 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 218 659 235 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7309 2368 7 67 89 0 0 0
OW 0 88 11 29 8 0 0 0
VODI 0 37 9 78 27 3 0 0
ODI 0 2 2 85 59 16 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 29 128 57 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 270 683 235 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12988 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12988 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3738 1474 17 46 0 0 0 0
OW 3 31 18 104 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 12 4 96 35 0 0 0
ODI 0 2 2 21 47 1 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 39 13 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 33 64 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3736 1469 22 139 0 0 0 0
OW 5 32 12 40 18 0 0 0
VODI 0 15 4 65 35 0 0 0
ODI 0 3 3 22 27 2 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 40 12 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 37 64 0 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6063 2452 9 23 0 0 0 0
OW 4 4 1 24 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 5 1 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6064 2359 9 16 0 0 0 0
OW 3 97 1 35 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 19882 305 4 7 0 0 0 0
OW 0 9 1 1 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 19882 311 4 7 0 0 0 0
OW 0 3 1 1 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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