Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2018-09-27

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-09-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 19400 5881 73 162 37 6 0 0
OW 80 550 54 190 60 10 0 0
VODI 0 153 33 382 235 26 1 0
ODI 0 3 4 290 504 49 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 99 737 2261 218 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 68 6798 5937 1558
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-09-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 19135 5764 68 219 33 4 0 0
OW 79 550 56 330 61 11 0 0
VODI 0 110 30 383 282 26 0 0
ODI 0 5 1 159 598 67 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 62 691 1829 266 1
VCDI 0 0 0 9 59 7194 6394 1387
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-09-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18540 6008 80 278 46 0 0 0
OW 0 359 73 360 83 5 0 0
VODI 0 53 25 332 471 10 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 62 782 121 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 15 262 1840 50 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 24 7940 6920 1127
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-09-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18173 6063 68 272 46 0 0 0
OW 0 452 53 392 116 0 0 0
VODI 0 140 46 421 338 0 0 0
ODI 0 6 6 179 503 76 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 44 651 659 9 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 204 11383 4730 836
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18173 6193 75 320 51 0 0 0
OW 0 328 47 370 122 0 0 0
VODI 0 121 41 403 393 0 0 0
ODI 0 19 10 163 439 37 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 52 615 1046 12 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 238 11035 4727 836

Date: 2018-09-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18341 5635 63 312 69 0 0 0
OW 20 481 44 417 134 0 0 0
VODI 0 142 38 266 526 6 0 0
ODI 0 15 3 126 483 68 0 0
CDI 0 10 3 24 388 709 70 0
VCDI 0 0 0 10 137 12401 4501 424
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18358 5796 71 384 89 0 0 0
OW 3 313 36 346 136 0 0 0
VODI 0 137 33 244 563 6 0 0
ODI 0 24 8 135 412 82 0 0
CDI 0 13 3 32 356 861 98 0
VCDI 0 0 0 14 181 12235 4473 424

Date: 2018-10-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18121 6128 47 157 66 0 0 0
OW 0 355 70 324 99 2 0 0
VODI 0 98 23 558 255 0 0 0
ODI 0 9 3 39 683 61 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 18 176 1202 52 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 82 8963 7741 534
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18121 5919 52 261 161 0 0 0
OW 0 503 56 264 60 2 0 0
VODI 0 140 26 439 321 16 0 0
ODI 0 18 6 96 448 122 0 0
CDI 0 10 3 27 254 688 260 0
VCDI 0 0 0 9 117 9400 7533 534

Date: 2018-10-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17704 6518 59 131 22 0 0 0
OW 0 392 74 412 150 0 0 0
VODI 0 109 21 417 363 8 0 0
ODI 0 5 4 43 471 140 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 10 244 677 381 1
VCDI 0 0 0 0 27 4208 12725 550
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17618 6206 57 215 171 0 0 0
OW 86 624 60 213 52 4 0 0
VODI 0 165 35 461 286 19 0 0
ODI 0 29 6 100 441 124 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 20 254 484 232 5
VCDI 0 0 0 4 73 4402 12871 546

Date: 2018-10-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16983 6808 50 194 13 0 0 0
OW 0 381 61 406 170 79 0 0
VODI 0 71 27 437 516 59 0 0
ODI 0 5 0 135 322 257 11 0
CDI 0 0 0 13 240 493 505 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 21 2838 14291 480
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16749 6514 47 238 103 46 0 0
OW 234 626 44 259 127 37 0 0
VODI 0 110 42 491 361 67 0 0
ODI 0 15 5 156 377 187 7 0
CDI 0 0 0 41 256 478 311 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 58 2911 14489 480


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