Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2018-08-16

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-08-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12271 7328 98 475 58 0 0 0
OW 0 1512 78 668 115 0 0 0
VODI 0 283 60 1503 820 0 0 0
ODI 0 12 1 200 2730 345 0 0
CDI 0 2 0 5 1330 4044 526 0
VCDI 0 1 2 16 236 4397 6409 341
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-08-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12582 7295 83 417 123 0 0 0
OW 0 1532 72 488 135 0 0 0
VODI 0 357 61 1243 1069 44 0 0
ODI 0 7 5 245 2338 423 21 0
CDI 0 2 0 9 1348 3910 1088 0
VCDI 0 1 2 18 275 2257 7032 1384
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-08-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12627 8204 80 361 40 0 0 0
OW 0 1067 75 369 61 0 0 0
VODI 0 175 59 1243 757 10 0 0
ODI 0 2 0 101 2895 295 0 0
CDI 0 3 1 8 1363 4706 945 0
VCDI 0 3 0 12 110 2025 7159 1110
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-08-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12781 8435 68 285 57 0 0 0
OW 0 1168 74 306 57 0 0 0
VODI 0 253 76 1508 407 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 322 2707 94 0 0
CDI 0 4 1 37 2257 4062 1123 0
VCDI 0 14 3 19 319 3705 5264 460
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12781 8724 76 296 61 0 0 0
OW 0 892 71 324 51 0 0 0
VODI 0 240 71 1474 383 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 324 2472 147 1 0
CDI 0 1 1 41 2428 4074 1079 0
VCDI 0 17 3 18 409 3640 5307 460

Date: 2018-08-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13414 8087 61 310 38 0 0 0
OW 3 1167 59 240 59 0 0 0
VODI 0 322 81 1509 397 5 0 0
ODI 0 4 0 460 2407 127 5 0
CDI 0 16 1 85 2509 4035 925 0
VCDI 0 18 3 40 467 3747 4740 525
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13415 8372 62 311 43 0 0 0
OW 2 874 61 303 52 0 0 0
VODI 0 330 77 1415 392 8 0 0
ODI 0 3 1 492 2261 165 10 0
CDI 0 15 1 80 2547 4150 916 0
VCDI 0 20 3 43 582 3591 4744 525

Date: 2018-08-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13811 8384 63 234 26 0 0 0
OW 1 963 71 224 23 0 0 0
VODI 0 210 87 1869 351 4 0 0
ODI 0 6 1 172 2843 133 0 0
CDI 0 13 1 26 2107 4201 597 0
VCDI 0 15 1 33 157 2900 4654 1685
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13812 8181 67 286 35 0 0 0
OW 0 941 46 303 72 3 0 0
VODI 0 418 104 1256 401 34 0 0
ODI 0 16 4 548 1921 179 12 0
CDI 0 12 2 121 2527 3652 1324 66
VCDI 0 23 1 44 551 3370 3915 1619

Date: 2018-08-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14980 7491 59 299 16 0 0 0
OW 1 868 82 361 54 3 0 0
VODI 0 149 58 1649 515 17 0 0
ODI 0 7 0 148 2337 180 1 0
CDI 0 8 1 54 2605 3774 582 0
VCDI 0 10 2 39 210 3616 5313 377
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14979 7114 61 347 43 8 0 0
OW 2 915 40 295 79 10 0 0
VODI 0 463 91 1112 451 39 0 0
ODI 0 14 7 564 1595 195 0 0
CDI 0 11 0 176 2941 3638 1448 42
VCDI 0 16 3 56 628 3700 4448 335

Date: 2018-08-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15532 7320 62 226 12 0 0 0
OW 0 901 82 467 50 0 0 0
VODI 0 166 64 1436 541 1 0 0
ODI 0 8 1 139 2049 125 3 0
CDI 0 3 1 64 2373 3890 737 0
VCDI 0 1 1 71 163 3628 4749 1000
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15526 6675 58 257 38 0 0 0
OW 6 901 37 333 81 0 0 0
VODI 0 758 93 806 396 7 0 0
ODI 0 57 20 698 1413 74 1 0
CDI 0 6 1 212 2474 3562 2073 23
VCDI 0 2 2 97 786 4001 3415 977


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