Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2018-07-19

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-07-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2236 8146 186 1583 247 30 0 0
OW 0 161 42 960 833 43 0 0
VODI 0 25 1 926 1594 169 0 0
ODI 0 43 2 205 1689 466 0 0
CDI 0 38 0 108 5083 4485 66 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 871 12740 2888 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-07-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2731 8666 221 1330 335 31 0 0
OW 0 142 38 1822 532 57 0 0
VODI 0 25 6 599 1284 177 0 0
ODI 0 11 3 230 1718 406 0 0
CDI 0 2 0 238 4836 4291 79 0
VCDI 0 7 0 13 312 9856 5736 132
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-07-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2874 9124 203 1632 126 46 0 0
OW 0 83 29 1358 261 42 0 0
VODI 0 9 1 947 1173 82 0 0
ODI 0 4 3 233 3617 730 0 0
CDI 0 1 0 8 3506 5616 19 0
VCDI 0 14 1 32 505 8539 5028 20
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-07-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3065 9402 210 1963 139 57 0 0
OW 0 94 25 1098 328 50 0 0
VODI 0 60 16 786 1718 98 0 0
ODI 0 10 5 404 3387 664 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 38 3596 4993 128 0
VCDI 0 0 0 62 340 8958 4044 128
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3065 9403 216 1917 180 68 0 0
OW 0 93 17 1185 340 41 0 0
VODI 0 60 18 745 1711 99 0 0
ODI 0 10 5 390 3204 756 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 53 3723 4968 186 0
VCDI 0 0 0 61 350 8888 3986 128

Date: 2018-07-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3792 9366 207 1753 251 29 0 0
OW 0 135 33 1094 554 55 0 0
VODI 0 119 13 524 2374 125 0 0
ODI 0 7 5 959 2205 660 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 103 3126 5296 144 0
VCDI 0 0 0 49 508 4348 7533 499
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3792 9327 208 1750 399 39 0 0
OW 0 170 28 1079 559 39 0 0
VODI 0 118 15 536 2173 119 0 0
ODI 0 12 7 847 2076 747 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 224 3285 5132 151 0
VCDI 0 0 0 46 526 4437 7526 499

Date: 2018-07-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5948 8529 139 757 200 15 0 0
OW 0 266 56 714 226 18 0 0
VODI 0 145 25 2908 1064 50 0 0
ODI 0 10 2 335 4672 206 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 11 1460 6424 373 0
VCDI 0 0 0 60 370 3690 6308 885
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5948 8452 151 1134 482 29 0 0
OW 0 321 47 1116 723 43 0 0
VODI 0 138 13 1039 1608 371 0 0
ODI 0 35 9 965 1635 247 0 0
CDI 0 4 2 465 3076 4798 415 10
VCDI 0 0 0 66 468 4915 6266 875

Date: 2018-07-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8543 6591 118 761 232 10 0 0
OW 2 333 59 1215 245 44 0 0
VODI 0 77 24 3020 1166 79 0 0
ODI 0 5 0 218 4155 310 0 0
CDI 0 5 2 6 1720 5554 616 0
VCDI 0 2 1 54 372 2179 7455 693
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8545 6561 137 1510 460 45 0 0
OW 0 262 31 1011 604 58 0 0
VODI 0 113 17 1247 1524 216 0 0
ODI 0 63 16 861 1512 115 0 0
CDI 0 8 1 587 3319 4746 629 1
VCDI 0 6 2 58 471 2996 7442 692

Date: 2018-07-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8633 6683 131 921 313 36 0 0
OW 0 313 67 1896 359 81 0 0
VODI 0 240 45 2130 1417 125 0 0
ODI 0 8 0 481 2962 1010 0 0
CDI 0 14 3 18 1570 4760 989 0
VCDI 0 3 1 30 403 1523 6997 1704
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8633 6735 154 1726 641 90 0 0
OW 0 99 19 825 584 119 0 0
VODI 0 105 18 1169 1341 493 0 0
ODI 0 184 30 659 1385 377 0 0
CDI 0 124 22 1052 2593 4706 1787 146
VCDI 0 14 4 45 480 1750 6199 1558


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