Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2018-06-21

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-06-25

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 36 1497 7 41 5 0 0 0
OW 0 55 10 79 34 0 0 0
VODI 0 4 3 139 140 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 13 578 168 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 136 1648 1164 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2335 10416 18394
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 36 1521 14 94 50 0 0 0
OW 0 29 3 62 147 66 0 0
VODI 0 6 3 81 316 130 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 35 254 442 40 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 123 1269 3149 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 3 2244 8391 18394

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 150 11 56 25 4 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 4 9 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 14 7 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 36 13 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 246 97 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1020 407 838 196
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 150 11 56 24 4 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 8 11 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 20 13 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 25 23 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 134 51 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1134 435 838 196

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 196 20 279 60 0 0 0
OW 0 59 6 58 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 13 3 42 23 0 0 0
ODI 0 12 1 34 60 2 0 0
CDI 0 19 4 68 339 464 6 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 65 3383 3756 1008
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 149 15 284 60 0 0 0
OW 0 29 4 46 8 0 0 0
VODI 0 43 2 16 37 0 0 0
ODI 0 31 4 16 44 3 0 0
CDI 0 44 8 89 193 412 5 0
VCDI 0 3 1 30 207 3434 3757 1008

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 293 1582 24 33 0 0 0 0
OW 11 68 20 145 5 0 0 0
VODI 0 10 3 150 117 0 0 0
ODI 0 8 3 21 266 31 0 0
CDI 0 1 1 38 253 770 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1568 233 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 298 1417 17 56 2 0 0 0
OW 6 105 12 80 23 0 0 0
VODI 0 87 10 122 96 0 0 0
ODI 0 37 3 32 174 20 0 0
CDI 0 23 9 97 330 627 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 16 1722 233 0

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 35 0 3 0 0 0 0
OW 0 28 1 11 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 6 2 102 30 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 53 178 26 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 13 189 1005 150 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 67 2306 2747 291
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 33 0 4 0 0 0 0
OW 0 15 1 9 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 18 0 57 14 2 0 0
ODI 0 3 2 47 80 19 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 60 260 749 139 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 110 2569 2758 291

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1520 40 198 160 9 0 0
OW 0 41 22 136 108 10 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 137 232 39 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 5 485 227 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 169 1700 76 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 12 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1511 48 241 226 39 0 0
OW 0 50 12 136 170 41 0 0
VODI 0 0 2 93 367 321 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 6 267 435 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 107 1149 76 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 29 0 0 0

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1210 37 221 25 3 0 0
OW 0 213 40 291 166 12 0 0
VODI 0 15 12 438 615 17 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 5 1128 138 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 24 1536 103 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 13 69 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1296 57 418 181 21 0 0
OW 0 122 21 298 673 12 0 0
VODI 0 20 11 221 851 197 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 18 208 437 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 45 992 64 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 60 108 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8761 2119 14 43 7 0 0 0
OW 0 33 7 42 34 2 0 0
VODI 0 1 1 46 58 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 46 19 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 93 4 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8761 2121 15 70 32 1 0 0
OW 0 28 5 30 61 4 0 0
VODI 0 4 2 31 37 31 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 15 33 4 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 46 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7014 2674 33 240 2 0 0 0
OW 0 6 3 151 35 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 2 69 176 8 3 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 366 47 9 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 99 545 47 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 12 155 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7014 2679 35 368 33 0 0 0
OW 0 1 3 79 163 20 2 0
VODI 0 0 0 12 284 38 7 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 132 242 23 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 66 285 175 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 27 7 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12559 415 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12557 415 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1950 48 333 103 3 0 0
OW 0 31 20 215 46 7 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 187 412 9 2 0
ODI 0 0 0 5 887 116 6 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 109 1269 44 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1955 57 510 256 11 0 0
OW 0 21 5 147 477 21 1 0
VODI 0 5 6 62 351 138 9 0
ODI 0 0 0 21 246 220 38 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 227 1014 5 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 144 1887 52 520 188 2 0 0
OW 0 295 2 254 224 11 0 0
VODI 0 88 0 137 743 27 1 0
ODI 0 0 1 30 1599 254 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 21 189 1284 22 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 48 251 308 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 144 1982 52 686 475 10 0 0
OW 0 260 2 152 729 74 0 0
VODI 0 28 1 73 1412 861 7 0
ODI 0 0 0 18 209 309 18 0
CDI 0 0 0 33 76 288 52 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 90 287 259 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14920 3408 46 479 285 0 0 0
OW 0 20 13 131 68 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 114 134 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 4 233 32 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 21 279 18 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14920 3406 47 555 325 0 0 0
OW 0 22 11 95 92 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 73 150 12 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 5 140 115 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 34 187 15 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0


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