Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2018-05-17

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-05-21

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 668 20 55 0 0 0 0
OW 0 83 12 109 24 0 0 0
VODI 0 52 9 144 124 1 0 0
ODI 0 10 1 44 169 11 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 25 178 292 28 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 276 6557 28010
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 697 23 78 19 0 0 0
OW 0 59 11 104 28 1 0 0
VODI 0 22 4 99 105 15 0 0
ODI 0 26 3 27 117 35 1 0
CDI 0 9 1 69 188 144 67 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 38 385 6517 28010

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 97 21 15 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 40 169 1124 1665
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 21 10 30 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 116 180 1109 1665

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 12 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 26 14 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 170 131 68 27
VCDI 0 0 0 39 212 644 3173 5455
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 3 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 21 13 8 0
CDI 0 0 0 6 117 64 112 38
VCDI 0 0 0 41 280 713 3121 5444

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2 850 3 6 0 0 0 0
OW 0 131 9 37 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 88 2 28 29 0 0 0
ODI 0 57 5 11 31 3 0 0
CDI 0 36 17 90 102 28 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 23 106 258 2716 982
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2 646 5 16 0 0 0 0
OW 0 120 4 13 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 127 4 22 16 0 0 0
ODI 0 105 0 18 25 1 0 0
CDI 0 150 13 38 43 16 0 0
VCDI 0 14 10 88 184 272 2716 982

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 13 0 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 53 25 9 0
VCDI 0 0 0 16 109 379 4166 2473
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 11 1 4 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 43 42 37 0
VCDI 0 0 0 16 120 361 4136 2473

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 31 22 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 106 801 3486 880
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 18 8 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 106 814 3500 880

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 17 279 27 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 38 1251 4573 144
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 10 53 56 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 45 1477 4544 144

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6020 3091 27 138 24 0 0 0
OW 0 108 29 201 29 0 0 0
VODI 0 25 6 325 212 3 0 0
ODI 0 3 3 47 259 71 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 21 155 357 19 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 44 112 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6020 3093 32 198 134 0 0 0
OW 0 100 24 218 73 3 0 0
VODI 0 13 4 226 157 14 0 0
ODI 0 12 1 29 107 59 5 0
CDI 0 9 4 53 130 213 49 0
VCDI 0 0 0 8 78 186 79 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6981 2770 17 64 6 0 0 0
OW 0 56 14 90 18 0 2 0
VODI 0 0 4 104 92 14 5 0
ODI 0 0 0 5 170 56 8 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 42 258 65 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 68 787 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6981 2760 19 96 7 0 0 0
OW 0 66 13 90 70 19 11 0
VODI 0 0 3 71 143 91 17 0
ODI 0 0 0 6 72 84 51 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 36 169 226 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 33 562 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9423 2673 42 277 147 14 0 0
OW 0 4 0 15 106 32 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 2 74 23 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 22 37 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1 48 44 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9423 2677 42 292 242 69 0 0
OW 0 0 0 2 88 27 7 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 20 51 30 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 8 10 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 160 19 38 0 0 0 0
OW 0 46 23 69 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 18 10 140 24 0 0 0
ODI 0 5 2 105 64 1 2 0
CDI 0 2 1 103 597 610 77 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 37 1332 2308 2
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 99 12 36 0 0 0 0
OW 0 42 11 17 5 0 0 0
VODI 0 44 17 68 7 0 1 0
ODI 0 24 8 88 25 0 6 0
CDI 0 18 5 193 403 205 77 0
VCDI 0 4 2 55 288 1738 2303 2

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 9 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 209 14 88 5 0 0 0
VODI 0 96 11 228 60 0 0 0
ODI 0 18 3 37 82 33 3 0
CDI 0 2 3 75 162 186 86 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 248 836 3525 2563
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 18 3 5 0 0 0 0
OW 0 105 10 115 5 0 0 0
VODI 0 129 9 125 11 24 0 0
ODI 0 71 3 73 85 28 16 0
CDI 0 11 6 83 134 142 112 2
VCDI 0 0 0 32 322 861 3486 2561

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12232 3974 62 622 485 0 0 0
OW 0 39 11 165 259 3 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 109 551 35 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 17 534 134 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 173 544 73 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 61 123 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12232 3974 63 739 760 4 0 0
OW 0 26 4 83 456 25 0 0
VODI 0 13 6 47 389 143 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 40 171 87 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 227 480 105 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 38 91 0


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