Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2018-04-05

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-03-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69152 15415 203 1221 781 238 6 0
OW 51 270 42 308 668 210 21 0
VODI 0 58 27 222 726 423 61 0
ODI 0 7 3 84 380 462 91 0
CDI 0 0 1 26 480 946 347 13
VCDI 0 0 0 1 195 3058 20373 70478
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-04-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69237 15523 205 1124 693 163 8 0
OW 51 302 46 412 513 193 28 0
VODI 0 72 32 255 741 419 86 0
ODI 0 8 4 93 387 351 126 0
CDI 0 1 1 27 506 616 352 24
VCDI 0 0 0 7 458 2948 21292 69744
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-04-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68845 16132 203 966 482 49 0 0
OW 51 267 71 503 432 104 1 0
VODI 0 21 18 342 642 276 24 0
ODI 0 0 3 69 598 498 63 0
CDI 0 0 0 16 527 930 334 34
VCDI 0 0 0 2 290 3374 23439 67442
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-04-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68548 16398 210 931 428 15 0 0
OW 51 282 49 520 459 68 0 0
VODI 0 50 21 269 731 206 2 0
ODI 0 5 4 107 515 533 44 0
CDI 0 0 1 26 525 1028 377 8
VCDI 0 0 0 1 373 3832 26119 64312
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68548 16442 218 994 453 15 0 0
OW 51 237 42 468 451 69 0 0
VODI 0 52 21 259 738 229 2 0
ODI 0 3 3 103 494 551 58 0
CDI 0 1 1 28 475 914 298 8
VCDI 0 0 0 2 420 3904 26184 64312

Date: 2018-04-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68587 15939 206 1006 435 36 0 0
OW 51 438 47 545 398 65 0 0
VODI 0 118 38 301 788 165 10 0
ODI 0 5 7 171 713 460 47 0
CDI 0 0 0 66 696 1035 316 99
VCDI 0 0 0 5 513 4150 27342 62250
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68587 16047 212 1134 474 34 0 0
OW 51 328 45 469 445 74 0 0
VODI 0 117 33 263 743 187 11 0
ODI 0 8 7 149 660 443 49 3
CDI 0 0 1 64 618 971 320 112
VCDI 0 0 0 15 603 4202 27335 62234

Date: 2018-04-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68231 16356 198 790 365 21 0 0
OW 51 447 79 603 362 37 0 0
VODI 0 128 23 488 913 149 1 0
ODI 0 5 2 53 774 596 27 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 444 1778 411 19
VCDI 0 0 0 0 228 3861 27367 62233
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68231 16486 216 1030 607 37 0 0
OW 51 321 57 428 470 69 0 0
VODI 0 107 23 281 609 350 18 0
ODI 0 17 5 139 503 655 70 0
CDI 0 5 1 55 481 1065 421 16
VCDI 0 0 0 9 416 4266 27297 62236

Date: 2018-04-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68146 16642 208 981 392 24 0 0
OW 51 338 60 541 537 64 0 0
VODI 0 80 23 360 759 238 0 0
ODI 0 5 5 81 564 537 35 0
CDI 0 0 0 11 562 1520 341 15
VCDI 0 0 0 0 369 3883 27264 62412
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68146 16628 217 1065 702 81 0 0
OW 51 318 39 347 367 144 3 0
VODI 0 103 35 320 527 399 25 0
ODI 0 14 5 176 466 656 79 0
CDI 0 2 0 61 539 958 345 19
VCDI 0 0 0 5 582 4028 27188 62408

Date: 2018-04-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68563 16238 213 1048 489 68 11 0
OW 52 297 54 512 507 102 19 0
VODI 0 79 26 325 768 245 35 0
ODI 0 7 5 100 666 436 87 0
CDI 0 0 0 34 541 1211 382 42
VCDI 0 0 0 0 294 4265 27098 62229
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68563 16034 202 1128 786 116 28 0
OW 52 433 55 289 409 149 21 0
VODI 0 123 32 313 596 372 53 0
ODI 0 24 8 179 500 522 102 0
CDI 0 7 1 86 538 998 631 51
VCDI 0 0 0 24 436 4170 26797 62220


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