Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2018-03-15

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-03-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68117 16495 191 741 416 144 0 0
OW 51 512 69 693 346 123 1 0
VODI 0 92 28 479 887 221 37 0
ODI 0 1 0 157 739 328 82 0
CDI 0 0 0 40 579 991 210 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 338 3091 6398 6503
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-03-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69060 15616 199 835 507 132 2 0
OW 57 426 56 587 453 129 10 0
VODI 1 78 21 371 852 285 34 0
ODI 0 1 5 141 554 400 74 0
CDI 0 0 0 19 409 1066 287 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 210 2401 8089 5733
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-03-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68880 15630 169 866 412 58 0 0
OW 62 456 78 606 381 80 0 0
VODI 2 94 27 441 783 152 6 0
ODI 0 5 2 88 660 433 55 0
CDI 0 0 0 14 446 1320 194 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 131 2615 8226 5728
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-03-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68348 16075 162 814 466 147 0 0
OW 52 425 78 512 386 125 21 0
VODI 0 98 27 343 669 178 80 0
ODI 0 18 5 92 633 358 145 0
CDI 0 4 1 28 409 1051 269 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 157 3015 6854 7052
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68348 16094 173 887 527 169 0 0
OW 52 401 62 436 398 115 26 0
VODI 0 103 33 349 640 199 96 0
ODI 0 18 3 94 588 376 128 0
CDI 0 4 2 22 406 980 226 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 161 3035 6893 7052

Date: 2018-03-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68698 16467 188 870 341 66 0 0
OW 51 485 67 467 402 101 0 0
VODI 0 153 38 398 640 233 14 0
ODI 0 41 11 177 534 342 20 0
CDI 0 32 3 73 622 660 159 0
VCDI 0 22 5 72 589 4359 8290 3410
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68698 16517 188 940 425 77 0 0
OW 51 427 68 411 390 108 0 0
VODI 0 155 39 385 645 228 13 0
ODI 0 41 9 180 472 364 23 0
CDI 0 30 3 68 608 601 130 0
VCDI 0 30 5 73 588 4383 8317 3410

Date: 2018-03-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69278 16494 141 508 284 44 0 0
OW 51 646 90 572 165 65 0 0
VODI 0 267 49 695 680 116 0 0
ODI 0 94 12 202 826 285 3 0
CDI 0 16 5 95 640 818 91 0
VCDI 0 0 1 25 818 3973 6212 4839
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69278 16450 164 721 475 97 0 0
OW 51 477 54 402 282 85 0 0
VODI 0 294 45 390 451 205 6 0
ODI 0 161 13 247 400 255 38 0
CDI 0 103 17 212 575 539 89 0
VCDI 0 32 5 125 1230 4120 6173 4839

Date: 2018-03-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69710 16020 146 618 361 139 0 0
OW 51 545 82 570 394 93 0 0
VODI 0 159 33 483 598 236 0 0
ODI 0 35 12 211 527 330 14 0
CDI 0 12 1 86 570 615 93 0
VCDI 0 4 0 34 454 3668 6667 5529
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69710 15680 137 727 554 155 0 0
OW 51 539 57 302 306 132 0 0
VODI 0 294 43 413 389 222 4 0
ODI 0 156 14 222 376 264 29 0
CDI 0 87 17 202 506 467 96 0
VCDI 0 19 6 136 773 3841 6645 5529

Date: 2018-03-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69739 15809 143 584 393 190 0 0
OW 59 519 90 428 309 134 0 0
VODI 5 140 47 459 603 312 0 0
ODI 2 16 8 230 486 382 53 0
CDI 0 5 1 72 530 579 102 0
VCDI 0 1 0 30 539 3605 6320 6176
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69734 15545 133 601 527 291 0 0
OW 59 534 69 332 278 143 0 0
VODI 7 292 58 368 409 234 12 0
ODI 4 78 17 245 401 313 61 0
CDI 1 31 11 162 513 516 89 0
VCDI 0 10 1 95 732 3705 6313 6176


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