Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2018-03-01

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-03-05

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 648 10 79 8 0 0 0
OW 0 19 4 53 47 1 0 0
VODI 0 13 4 26 71 28 0 0
ODI 0 3 4 31 45 42 28 0
CDI 0 0 0 47 54 318 246 0
VCDI 0 0 0 20 227 1211 6125 27490
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 602 6 50 7 0 0 0
OW 0 34 3 38 20 3 0 0
VODI 0 30 4 30 47 12 0 0
ODI 0 10 4 23 40 25 1 0
CDI 0 7 3 26 50 56 6 0
VCDI 0 0 2 89 288 1504 6392 27490

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 13
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 27 472 2611
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 27 482 2616

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9982
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9982

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 6 38 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 57 45 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 11 86 2 3
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 160 1326 3920
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 7 50 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 20 20 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 34 42 6 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 13 217 1321 3923

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7246
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7246

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 99 5227
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 99 5220

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 123 15 26 0 0 0 0
OW 0 3 2 17 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 0 19 5 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 6 26 4 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 73 39 12 13
VCDI 0 0 0 0 44 518 4162 1218
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 118 12 19 0 0 0 0
OW 0 7 3 11 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 2 17 1 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 14 8 1 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 22 29 3 16
VCDI 0 0 0 6 117 532 4171 1215

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3937 3733 50 217 45 0 0 0
OW 2 74 20 226 88 5 0 0
VODI 0 8 2 134 183 21 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 21 325 44 6 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 185 205 44 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 166 1295 292 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3934 3677 50 194 68 1 0 0
OW 5 98 16 159 51 9 0 0
VODI 0 40 5 163 128 17 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 66 161 28 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 16 256 66 13 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 328 1449 324 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5773 3394 14 47 0 0 0 0
OW 0 83 15 117 17 0 0 0
VODI 0 9 7 116 121 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 17 163 37 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 92 173 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 17 795 686 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5773 3377 21 47 3 0 0 0
OW 0 90 7 106 26 0 0 0
VODI 0 19 8 105 98 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 39 132 15 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 118 108 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 33 882 686 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8280 3316 44 160 93 18 0 0
OW 0 75 21 137 52 0 0 0
VODI 0 7 3 70 182 7 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 10 130 102 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 37 196 5 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 32 11 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8280 3353 55 249 127 18 0 0
OW 0 35 9 81 102 5 0 0
VODI 0 9 2 32 151 53 0 0
ODI 0 1 2 8 78 113 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 35 137 16 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 29 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 20 1 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 27 20 8 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 19 407 3779 1522
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 17 2 4 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 49 426 3783 1522

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 135 2228 6219
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 135 2228 6216

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9509 4510 62 245 78 21 0 0
OW 7 262 28 306 111 26 2 0
VODI 0 49 11 358 524 55 7 0
ODI 0 0 0 21 672 204 8 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 365 915 69 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 122 830 832 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9516 4668 76 438 193 45 3 0
OW 0 101 7 158 203 41 6 0
VODI 0 46 13 181 223 68 12 0
ODI 0 6 5 115 281 100 14 0
CDI 0 0 0 38 484 226 40 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 488 1571 843 0


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