Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2017-12-28

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-01-01

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 473 13 46 10 2 0 0
OW 0 7 8 31 29 12 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 40 37 23 3 0
ODI 0 0 0 20 34 34 7 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 54 56 16 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 27 534 6442 28944
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 442 6 27 10 4 0 0
OW 0 29 6 30 18 9 3 0
VODI 0 9 9 31 31 15 3 0
ODI 0 0 0 38 27 30 8 0
CDI 0 0 0 10 39 42 10 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 66 561 6444 28944

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 9 310 2814
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 9 310 2814

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 20 12 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 117 1622 8211
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 137 1634 8211

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 74 9 63 3 0 0 0
OW 0 2 2 72 55 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 34 131 14 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 81 109 6 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 37 329 96 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 9 480 2282 1766
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 45 6 72 42 0 0 0
OW 0 20 4 41 55 7 0 0
VODI 0 11 1 29 101 44 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 21 59 60 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 6 41 102 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 18 719 2384 1766

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 18
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 300 6928
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 40
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 300 6906

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 23 11
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 125 2346 2821
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 1 40 20
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 124 2329 2812

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3 440 3 6 0 0 0 0
OW 0 131 3 61 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 81 5 104 76 0 0 0
ODI 0 33 3 17 215 9 0 0
CDI 0 16 6 54 161 132 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 21 92 582 3722 354
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3 244 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 91 2 3 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 140 3 23 5 0 0 0
ODI 0 117 5 75 23 0 0 0
CDI 0 50 1 93 273 78 0 0
VCDI 0 59 9 69 243 645 3723 354

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5676 3650 61 188 26 0 0 0
OW 0 26 8 134 153 0 0 0
VODI 0 11 2 52 176 18 0 0
ODI 0 4 3 8 133 61 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 15 111 132 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 7 89 559 27 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5676 3522 48 133 6 0 0 0
OW 0 102 14 108 47 0 0 0
VODI 0 35 6 93 139 0 0 0
ODI 0 15 1 36 130 10 0 0
CDI 0 10 3 15 116 72 1 0
VCDI 0 7 3 19 250 688 26 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6162 2877 9 23 0 0 0 0
OW 0 42 13 95 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 10 7 110 48 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 24 109 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 12 103 87 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 57 469 1427 9
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6162 2842 9 51 1 0 0 0
OW 0 77 15 81 21 0 0 0
VODI 0 10 5 99 61 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 27 102 12 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 6 82 74 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 52 469 1427 9

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8489 3276 52 197 151 78 0 0
OW 0 36 4 60 32 145 1 0
VODI 0 8 3 59 59 24 16 0
ODI 0 0 0 3 56 27 22 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 52 58 41 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 12 17 10 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8489 3243 47 216 207 191 1 0
OW 0 57 8 44 29 59 23 0
VODI 0 16 1 40 14 37 43 0
ODI 0 4 3 9 31 20 23 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 50 15 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 31 27 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 195 11 124 17 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 35 53 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 14 81 7 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 4 40 25 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 49 63 8 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 14 455 2940 1668
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 195 11 79 11 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 45 29 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 27 52 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 14 50 7 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 12 42 47 5 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 70 494 2943 1668

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 83 5 4
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 699 4154 3640
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 8 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 73 2 12
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 703 4157 3632

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 13953 3936 45 142 13 0 0 0
OW 0 19 8 124 43 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 60 120 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 181 15 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 218 263 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 45 845 178 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 13953 3932 44 155 14 0 0 0
OW 0 23 8 105 36 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 58 90 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 9 130 42 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 173 96 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 177 985 178 0


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