Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2017-12-28

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-12-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80306 12726 118 436 233 155 0 0
OW 115 732 71 383 172 37 0 0
VODI 6 437 50 698 725 68 0 0
ODI 0 194 30 500 721 342 5 4
CDI 0 117 18 238 689 1159 416 72
VCDI 0 91 22 315 1294 6021 28520 48812
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-12-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79206 13183 124 418 201 191 26 0
OW 107 1066 67 358 93 21 13 0
VODI 0 598 52 509 558 91 0 0
ODI 0 269 35 415 769 343 7 0
CDI 0 123 13 312 838 1240 287 9
VCDI 0 129 15 297 1334 7898 27613 48220
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-12-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78778 14203 183 642 236 223 17 0
OW 61 359 52 497 229 30 0 0
VODI 0 164 46 452 519 108 5 0
ODI 0 68 6 274 874 442 47 0
CDI 0 24 6 91 831 1396 414 119
VCDI 0 24 6 65 544 5215 34626 45172
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-12-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78384 13623 156 577 240 224 13 0
OW 78 395 44 505 224 44 1 0
VODI 2 246 36 322 546 106 1 0
ODI 0 47 19 234 572 293 15 0
CDI 0 23 8 149 894 1081 180 57
VCDI 0 12 3 81 799 6220 31127 49467
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78390 13664 163 654 259 233 14 0
OW 74 367 38 453 240 39 0 0
VODI 0 232 38 300 556 117 3 0
ODI 0 49 16 230 659 436 21 0
CDI 0 23 8 134 755 950 205 51
VCDI 0 11 3 97 806 6193 31094 49473

Date: 2017-12-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76743 14258 164 683 256 215 30 0
OW 64 442 48 505 221 43 24 0
VODI 0 253 43 396 463 125 16 0
ODI 0 98 9 257 584 280 6 0
CDI 0 49 9 130 938 653 174 17
VCDI 0 76 12 142 1208 5672 26731 55011
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76743 14325 168 735 289 222 21 0
OW 64 362 47 466 229 46 29 0
VODI 0 246 35 373 456 139 20 0
ODI 0 125 17 275 591 322 6 0
CDI 0 52 6 143 884 598 184 12
VCDI 0 66 12 121 1221 5661 26721 55016

Date: 2018-01-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76073 14928 203 789 220 80 0 0
OW 63 263 46 612 367 157 1 0
VODI 0 110 17 473 728 86 19 0
ODI 0 37 6 77 849 282 35 0
CDI 0 16 7 81 785 1223 203 33
VCDI 0 0 0 28 345 4891 25760 57155
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76071 14472 171 733 291 195 1 0
OW 65 399 57 457 235 75 26 0
VODI 0 221 26 400 493 99 46 0
ODI 0 136 9 229 552 189 31 0
CDI 0 60 4 149 816 600 59 72
VCDI 0 66 12 92 907 5561 25855 57116

Date: 2018-01-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75577 14883 193 662 332 71 2 0
OW 65 373 67 483 327 75 53 0
VODI 0 121 23 429 685 147 19 0
ODI 0 50 2 96 651 256 29 1
CDI 0 36 9 45 699 684 74 24
VCDI 0 7 2 49 638 5492 22837 60780
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75575 14428 177 742 381 95 49 0
OW 67 384 53 315 354 88 33 0
VODI 0 252 26 278 539 202 38 0
ODI 0 160 20 180 442 268 44 0
CDI 0 62 6 130 736 577 88 93
VCDI 0 184 14 119 880 5495 22762 60712

Date: 2018-01-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75559 14480 153 541 326 84 0 0
OW 67 573 68 421 179 69 18 0
VODI 0 189 41 477 431 263 54 0
ODI 0 60 12 146 494 316 16 1
CDI 0 39 12 87 482 584 73 45
VCDI 0 4 5 93 734 5381 23536 60935
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75556 13996 148 599 432 144 28 0
OW 70 519 49 352 243 204 51 0
VODI 0 286 34 260 347 406 21 0
ODI 0 199 17 136 265 371 32 0
CDI 0 180 24 209 395 503 90 50
VCDI 0 165 19 209 964 5069 23475 60931


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