Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2017-09-14

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-09-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97585 3192 13 45 17 0 0 0
OW 0 223 20 112 38 3 0 0
VODI 0 64 24 461 102 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 86 1205 46 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 1107 1401 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2262 1085 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-09-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97698 3190 13 41 9 0 0 0
OW 0 324 13 86 24 6 0 0
VODI 0 115 32 403 107 7 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 120 1040 12 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 14 1013 1383 15 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 9 2613 813 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-09-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97681 3696 34 105 3 0 0 0
OW 0 94 19 214 26 0 0 0
VODI 0 15 4 309 211 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 42 1156 191 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 402 1712 386 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1366 1298 136
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-09-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97513 3852 30 136 2 0 0 0
OW 0 148 14 222 38 0 0 0
VODI 0 35 9 217 285 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 49 632 404 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 213 1591 741 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 428 2431 108
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97513 3863 31 134 6 0 0 0
OW 0 134 11 170 34 0 0 0
VODI 0 38 11 285 255 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 35 625 456 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 250 1538 772 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 430 2400 108

Date: 2017-09-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97876 3429 26 143 1 0 0 0
OW 0 232 14 202 60 0 0 0
VODI 0 61 10 179 324 5 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 51 576 217 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 363 1689 305 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1873 1363 101
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97876 3427 24 138 5 0 0 0
OW 0 239 16 134 44 0 0 0
VODI 0 56 10 259 318 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 44 592 279 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 365 1625 264 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1879 1404 101

Date: 2017-09-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 98105 3423 27 164 5 0 0 0
OW 0 95 15 171 36 0 0 0
VODI 0 8 3 141 271 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 12 728 24 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 247 1821 6 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1839 1876 83
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 98105 3151 12 134 17 0 0 0
OW 0 316 18 129 65 0 0 0
VODI 0 58 13 171 351 0 0 0
ODI 0 1 2 49 472 126 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 380 1536 3 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 2022 1879 83

Date: 2017-09-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97820 3239 27 214 114 0 0 0
OW 0 127 10 104 91 0 0 0
VODI 0 11 8 140 198 29 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 44 248 197 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 336 782 20 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 9 3378 1937 17
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97820 2980 23 160 53 0 0 0
OW 0 295 8 98 75 1 0 0
VODI 0 101 12 183 281 50 0 0
ODI 0 1 2 53 289 203 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 289 695 8 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 9 3437 1949 17

Date: 2017-09-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97319 3480 41 263 38 0 0 0
OW 0 64 8 145 116 0 0 0
VODI 0 44 3 75 265 4 0 0
ODI 0 3 1 27 196 154 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 35 774 16 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 12 3367 2574 76
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97319 3346 35 170 35 0 0 0
OW 0 124 11 113 69 1 0 0
VODI 0 82 4 173 340 33 0 0
ODI 0 35 2 34 167 257 0 0
CDI 0 4 1 20 39 719 17 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 12 3289 2573 76


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