Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2017-09-14

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-09-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 128109 17360 97 322 66 0 0 0
OW 0 1519 128 656 126 4 0 0
VODI 0 420 108 1787 796 7 0 0
ODI 0 43 19 696 4141 975 6 0
CDI 0 0 0 33 2142 12227 1815 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 25 8006 5390 25
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-09-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 128654 16502 89 222 48 0 0 0
OW 0 1859 110 604 115 6 0 0
VODI 0 644 137 1651 762 7 0 0
ODI 0 49 19 871 4153 323 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 48 3192 11455 753 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 50 9845 4880 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-09-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 128185 18107 135 380 25 0 0 0
OW 0 933 146 843 94 1 0 0
VODI 0 209 57 1884 836 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 401 4857 610 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 1414 12673 1805 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 9 6002 7267 171
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-09-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 127634 18311 138 416 41 1 0 0
OW 0 1059 134 825 104 0 0 0
VODI 0 348 74 1404 900 57 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 588 2612 1705 201 0
CDI 0 0 0 13 1091 6280 7325 23
VCDI 0 0 0 0 15 4982 10408 357
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 127634 18387 173 537 47 1 0 0
OW 0 954 87 766 118 0 0 0
VODI 0 366 78 1376 946 61 0 0
ODI 0 11 10 554 2378 1891 175 0
CDI 0 0 0 13 1257 5188 6785 2
VCDI 0 0 0 0 17 5884 10974 378

Date: 2017-09-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 127669 17550 152 446 56 3 0 0
OW 0 1096 118 809 264 3 0 0
VODI 0 312 69 1073 1178 115 1 0
ODI 0 0 0 380 2175 1697 73 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 931 5916 6495 25
VCDI 0 0 0 0 18 8779 9357 286
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 127669 17678 172 659 113 3 0 0
OW 0 957 93 644 278 1 0 0
VODI 0 312 69 1076 1213 159 2 0
ODI 0 11 5 327 2091 1868 80 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 909 5258 5923 19
VCDI 0 0 0 0 18 9224 9921 292

Date: 2017-09-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 127960 17840 147 388 25 0 0 0
OW 0 659 157 755 92 4 0 0
VODI 0 39 41 1248 714 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 138 2672 180 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 788 7089 267 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 3 8073 16716 1052
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 127960 17199 146 524 92 4 0 0
OW 0 1058 111 645 281 0 0 0
VODI 0 268 76 998 1126 195 0 0
ODI 0 13 13 319 1786 1375 50 0
CDI 0 0 0 43 1001 5775 4099 181
VCDI 0 0 0 0 8 7997 12834 871

Date: 2017-09-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 128018 17255 122 464 192 0 0 0
OW 0 908 116 492 238 1 0 0
VODI 0 196 99 1212 502 59 0 0
ODI 0 6 4 505 1657 272 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 21 1948 2778 38 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 129 16439 13201 176
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 128018 16564 125 524 161 1 0 0
OW 0 1173 86 462 306 13 0 0
VODI 0 563 101 979 867 130 0 0
ODI 0 62 25 578 1534 644 1 0
CDI 0 3 4 151 1707 4642 1590 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 91 14119 11648 176

Date: 2017-09-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 127522 16907 147 572 59 0 0 0
OW 6 1230 102 608 268 8 0 0
VODI 0 351 71 1056 708 5 0 0
ODI 0 22 9 377 1665 225 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 15 1423 2688 108 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 467 17059 13092 278
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 127522 16323 154 655 122 5 0 0
OW 6 1226 54 456 334 16 0 0
VODI 0 766 79 799 941 65 0 0
ODI 0 182 38 548 1294 529 0 0
CDI 0 13 4 170 1700 3635 663 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 199 15735 12537 278


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