Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2017-08-17

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-08-21

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 226 1757 53 133 0 0 0 0
OW 0 215 34 396 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 91 22 1278 511 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 149 11056 754 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1228 9343 688 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 221 4712 4029
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 226 1746 50 259 11 0 0 0
OW 0 160 23 482 89 0 0 0
VODI 0 115 21 891 2429 34 0 0
ODI 0 42 15 296 7912 2346 43 0
CDI 0 0 0 28 2360 7909 2262 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 29 3095 4029

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 320 445 23 159 7 0 0 0
OW 0 1 1 130 18 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 257 79 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 44 212 10 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 189 369 43 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 60 182 578 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 320 431 21 199 36 0 0 0
OW 0 13 2 122 31 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 1 204 53 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 65 142 30 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 225 354 257 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 78 177 361 0

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2587 2504 5 1 0 0 0 0
OW 273 1194 47 117 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 96 21 696 101 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 115 644 25 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 21 412 686 36 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 18 383 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2860 2923 9 9 0 0 0 0
OW 0 622 27 133 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 249 37 495 75 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 253 432 13 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 60 650 716 342 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 75 0

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4776 752 2 5 0 0 0 0
OW 0 9 7 20 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 26 13 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 44 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4776 761 6 8 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 3 29 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 14 43 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 14 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3173 2801 21 66 0 0 0 0
OW 0 56 21 139 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 181 79 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 5 522 27 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 14 141 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3173 2788 25 125 3 0 0 0
OW 0 53 11 145 38 0 0 0
VODI 0 16 6 121 240 14 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 334 143 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 11 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1430 2239 6 13 0 0 0 0
OW 1 99 33 72 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 3 5 131 74 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 14 214 61 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 19 451 148 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 12 298 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1430 2067 4 11 0 0 0 0
OW 1 144 14 21 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 98 18 111 65 3 0 0
ODI 0 32 8 79 204 155 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 39 366 446 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4171 2090 11 41 0 0 0 0
OW 0 8 3 5 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4171 2059 11 41 0 0 0 0
OW 0 26 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 13 3 7 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9946 1330 10 9 0 0 0 0
OW 0 4 3 17 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 8 4 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9946 1331 10 13 0 0 0 0
OW 0 3 3 19 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 2 4 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9118 2167 21 68 0 0 0 0
OW 0 45 17 70 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 58 11 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 52 13 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 7 48 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9118 2009 14 58 0 0 0 0
OW 0 171 20 66 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 32 4 63 20 13 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 10 49 46 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12988 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12988 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4434 1263 4 31 62 2 0 0
OW 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4434 1263 4 37 62 2 0 0
OW 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8585 2 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8585 2 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 19816 382 6 5 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 19816 382 6 5 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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