Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2017-07-20

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-07-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 91152 28067 396 2039 230 4 0 0
OW 2 1192 234 2162 443 20 0 0
VODI 0 280 73 2875 2451 146 0 0
ODI 1 7 5 486 5256 1455 1 0
CDI 0 1 0 98 3152 15657 2503 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 329 12539 11891 1901
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-07-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94543 25952 378 1793 213 1 0 0
OW 2 1394 212 1998 718 14 0 0
VODI 1 309 103 2240 3048 176 0 0
ODI 0 26 11 486 4855 2287 13 0
CDI 0 1 1 89 2343 16512 3559 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 377 12847 9342 1204
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-07-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95050 27918 416 1736 204 0 0 0
OW 2 804 213 1911 350 7 0 0
VODI 0 77 40 2747 1978 21 0 0
ODI 0 7 3 440 6762 423 0 0
CDI 0 2 0 18 3103 18813 1908 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 340 9027 12534 194
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-07-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97630 26528 384 1592 114 1 0 0
OW 1 954 218 2087 400 4 0 0
VODI 1 161 64 2697 2360 36 0 0
ODI 0 19 9 457 6149 959 10 0
CDI 0 1 1 26 3994 16903 1838 0
VCDI 0 0 0 8 358 11969 9115 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97631 26601 388 1770 156 2 0 0
OW 1 844 217 1947 378 6 0 0
VODI 0 200 61 2573 2355 38 0 0
ODI 0 17 9 536 5968 945 15 0
CDI 0 1 1 33 4195 17071 1905 0
VCDI 0 0 0 8 323 11810 9043 0

Date: 2017-07-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 98522 26405 340 1600 193 0 0 0
OW 0 1230 209 2144 498 10 0 0
VODI 0 295 89 2593 2711 33 0 0
ODI 0 37 11 403 5734 1384 0 0
CDI 0 2 0 24 4372 15910 1759 0
VCDI 0 5 0 23 473 11020 8874 145
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 98522 26503 354 1840 229 1 0 0
OW 0 1116 196 1888 474 12 0 0
VODI 0 312 85 2527 2752 41 0 0
ODI 0 36 14 475 5432 1362 24 0
CDI 0 1 0 34 4699 16084 1788 0
VCDI 0 6 0 23 395 10857 8821 145

Date: 2017-07-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 99690 27651 377 1514 144 1 0 0
OW 18 563 196 2109 271 3 0 0
VODI 0 22 25 2788 1521 12 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 175 8112 385 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 12 3178 18690 1737 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 190 8416 9247 1
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 99654 26392 302 1770 268 1 0 0
OW 41 1404 172 1714 613 12 0 0
VODI 13 408 113 2571 2615 131 0 0
ODI 0 32 11 479 5061 1738 213 0
CDI 0 0 0 64 4464 15782 1894 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 395 9843 8877 1

Date: 2017-07-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 101244 27091 446 1903 200 5 0 0
OW 9 458 176 2206 337 7 0 0
VODI 0 34 19 2761 1947 35 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 250 6538 1478 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 32 4321 17983 800 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 238 6647 9817 63
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 101212 25675 322 1936 360 6 0 0
OW 33 1354 195 1934 659 44 0 0
VODI 8 501 117 2462 2343 342 0 0
ODI 0 53 7 731 4330 3103 99 0
CDI 0 0 0 86 5383 15335 587 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 506 7325 9931 63

Date: 2017-07-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 103813 25776 401 1742 189 3 0 0
OW 1 704 170 2300 419 3 0 0
VODI 0 75 29 2607 2404 16 0 0
ODI 0 8 0 258 5666 2079 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 3336 16917 2448 4
VCDI 0 0 0 10 327 3758 7328 4249
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 103787 24232 313 1995 359 4 0 0
OW 21 1590 154 1873 872 15 0 0
VODI 6 661 119 2101 2361 443 0 0
ODI 0 80 14 863 3854 4281 316 0
CDI 0 0 0 84 4524 13333 1586 0
VCDI 0 0 0 9 371 4700 7874 4253


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