Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2017-06-15

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-06-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61756 23041 7672 4143 370 24 1 0
OW 41 57 410 2317 563 39 0 0
VODI 0 16 186 1980 1766 211 14 0
ODI 0 12 68 1048 2707 984 134 0
CDI 0 2 125 789 3626 6983 3123 34
VCDI 0 0 69 587 1168 8246 32881 19855
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-06-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63073 23312 6870 4339 470 38 0 0
OW 39 114 492 2173 856 47 0 0
VODI 0 24 314 1799 1677 275 25 0
ODI 0 12 143 984 2878 1236 220 0
CDI 0 1 178 972 2829 6898 3013 12
VCDI 0 0 55 759 1098 6636 29648 23539
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-06-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63727 24082 7557 4562 380 35 1 0
OW 38 21 275 2492 490 22 0 0
VODI 0 8 136 2093 1534 77 14 0
ODI 0 0 153 842 4051 1134 50 0
CDI 0 0 42 1022 2794 8188 1883 0
VCDI 0 0 0 153 496 7441 31139 20116
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-06-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63692 25874 6793 4500 337 25 3 0
OW 23 65 289 2684 467 29 9 0
VODI 0 38 125 1948 1900 105 32 0
ODI 0 11 127 753 4417 1179 97 0
CDI 0 0 110 1161 3251 6613 2916 0
VCDI 0 0 0 151 910 5227 25986 25201
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63692 25881 6794 4834 411 25 3 0
OW 23 63 285 2448 482 25 9 0
VODI 0 33 119 1843 2051 123 32 0
ODI 0 11 130 764 3843 1268 103 0
CDI 0 0 116 1169 3577 6462 2978 0
VCDI 0 0 0 139 918 5275 25918 25201

Date: 2017-06-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65521 22979 8275 4973 319 11 3 0
OW 20 98 341 2582 679 13 1 0
VODI 0 65 185 2158 2750 180 5 0
ODI 0 36 133 633 3279 1535 130 0
CDI 0 10 152 1295 3472 7373 3002 0
VCDI 0 0 0 255 1329 5184 25175 22897
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65521 23010 8280 5516 396 14 3 0
OW 20 76 328 2178 771 16 1 0
VODI 0 62 174 1981 2581 187 7 0
ODI 0 34 138 692 3127 1521 115 0
CDI 0 6 166 1271 3513 7241 2985 0
VCDI 0 0 0 258 1440 5317 25205 22897

Date: 2017-06-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61210 27769 9794 4757 317 8 2 0
OW 18 71 342 2592 282 1 2 0
VODI 0 12 125 2611 1943 37 4 0
ODI 0 19 76 1038 4727 805 29 0
CDI 0 2 21 969 3269 9589 1732 0
VCDI 0 0 0 51 561 5034 26755 20474
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61210 27638 9327 5229 485 9 3 0
OW 18 84 400 2518 1110 39 3 0
VODI 0 65 241 1476 2600 421 23 0
ODI 0 43 169 721 2395 1930 96 0
CDI 0 35 208 1405 2986 7255 3646 27
VCDI 0 8 13 669 1523 5820 24753 20447

Date: 2017-06-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64093 25710 10692 4898 279 2 4 0
OW 16 45 189 2775 519 5 1 0
VODI 0 25 105 2006 2335 85 5 0
ODI 0 12 63 846 3968 1353 26 0
CDI 0 6 48 658 3765 9435 2962 0
VCDI 0 0 0 46 483 5883 19415 24290
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64094 25561 9987 5242 643 11 5 0
OW 15 90 442 2246 1110 103 3 0
VODI 0 64 268 1338 2447 624 18 0
ODI 0 33 172 803 2241 2014 157 0
CDI 0 46 208 1198 3433 7678 4744 2
VCDI 0 4 20 402 1475 6333 17486 24288

Date: 2017-06-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65491 25115 10323 5377 410 10 3 0
OW 12 53 232 2781 571 16 1 0
VODI 0 23 109 2193 2345 202 7 0
ODI 0 10 64 941 3856 1450 53 0
CDI 0 6 61 723 4601 8346 3860 0
VCDI 0 0 0 16 2042 7351 17315 21079
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65491 24896 9699 6004 827 60 3 0
OW 12 144 415 1999 1089 126 1 0
VODI 0 82 264 1601 2206 739 62 0
ODI 0 31 190 802 2463 1870 526 0
CDI 0 52 216 1277 4373 7121 4831 0
VCDI 0 2 5 348 2867 7459 15816 21079


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