Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2017-05-25

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-05-29

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 4 0 3 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 8 2 6 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 12 7 20 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 18 100 244 26 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 56 2152 13323 20921
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 6 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 4 3 12 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 7 6 35 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 28 54 220 97 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 102 2150 13251 20921

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 10 3 0 1 0 0
OW 0 0 6 26 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 4 48 69 10 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 41 89 27 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 38 46 113 56 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 105 295 1375 769
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 4 1 0 0
OW 0 0 0 3 21 12 0 0
VODI 0 0 3 25 70 19 0 0
ODI 0 0 13 34 55 7 5 0
CDI 0 0 4 85 56 129 208 2
VCDI 0 0 0 9 105 278 1218 767

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 82 88 15 0 0 0
OW 0 0 30 143 20 6 0 0
VODI 0 0 2 330 82 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 16 133 140 12 0 0
CDI 0 0 2 125 366 824 135 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 2120 5027 280
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 57 68 13 1 0 0
OW 0 0 40 49 19 6 0 0
VODI 0 0 11 154 55 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 6 319 82 13 10 0
CDI 0 0 18 219 389 718 209 0
VCDI 0 0 0 10 66 2227 4943 280

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 514 330 118 39 2 0 0
OW 0 24 140 58 4 1 0 0
VODI 0 1 42 61 2 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 64 89 19 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 20 200 277 245 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 8 812 2442 140
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 426 185 100 36 2 0 0
OW 0 74 68 20 7 1 0 0
VODI 0 29 117 27 1 0 0 0
ODI 0 7 100 37 3 0 0 0
CDI 0 3 90 243 158 137 48 0
VCDI 0 0 36 99 144 920 2396 140

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 22 59 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 12 65 16 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 11 31 31 7 0 0
CDI 0 0 17 136 203 261 42 0
VCDI 0 0 12 135 213 910 4557 497
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 13 6 1 0 0
OW 0 0 0 18 8 2 0 0
VODI 0 0 8 24 12 8 2 0
ODI 0 0 13 28 6 4 15 0
CDI 0 0 31 116 91 163 117 0
VCDI 0 0 22 228 346 1002 4465 497

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 24 28 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 29 10 3 6 8
CDI 0 0 0 95 24 22 29 32
VCDI 0 0 0 97 417 1471 2587 439
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 1 8 1 0 10
ODI 0 0 0 11 23 5 14 33
CDI 0 0 0 69 22 25 194 75
VCDI 0 0 0 164 428 1468 2414 361

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 72 110 15 8 0 0 0
OW 0 6 116 38 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 28 150 39 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 107 136 23 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 138 632 326 25 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 349 2319 1691 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 67 66 8 2 0 0 0
OW 0 11 51 8 8 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 84 42 7 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 51 130 70 19 0 0
CDI 0 0 2 203 335 178 34 0
VCDI 0 0 0 57 744 2471 1682 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1016 6155 1014 307 4 0 0 0
OW 0 1 23 267 14 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 0 217 80 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 91 459 19 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 17 653 710 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 276 5 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1016 6150 972 268 8 0 0 0
OW 0 3 41 204 19 0 0 0
VODI 0 5 22 192 81 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 124 169 23 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 111 877 489 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 57 490 5 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2557 4526 929 279 6 0 0 0
OW 0 0 2 166 29 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 134 118 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 68 143 34 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 11 289 1096 33 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 460 816 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2557 4526 917 303 23 0 0 0
OW 0 0 14 122 77 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 105 95 71 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 78 75 133 9 0
CDI 0 0 0 50 304 810 32 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 11 576 808 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6292 4321 1378 237 78 27 2 0
OW 0 0 52 61 11 10 15 0
VODI 0 0 1 89 27 7 20 0
ODI 0 0 0 7 78 27 22 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 9 72 126 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 19 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6292 4321 1428 283 89 41 28 0
OW 0 0 3 100 22 4 23 0
VODI 0 0 0 11 90 71 82 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 2 26 57 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 1 14 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 145 301 177 2 0 0 0
OW 0 0 10 198 8 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 4 162 106 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 146 284 30 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 18 795 1028 64 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 581 1743 1
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 135 287 192 6 0 0 0
OW 0 10 11 168 25 1 0 0
VODI 0 0 12 110 84 17 0 0
ODI 0 0 5 57 122 23 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 174 940 748 428 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 18 850 1379 1

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 39 208 171 13 0 0 0
OW 0 2 0 179 47 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 209 257 12 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 98 452 86 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 47 1138 2216 35 0
VCDI 0 0 0 13 448 2198 718 1
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 39 124 108 29 0 0 0
OW 0 2 35 99 55 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 28 156 179 18 0 0
ODI 0 0 21 154 295 91 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 175 1041 1236 30 0
VCDI 0 0 0 25 756 3167 723 1

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8881 6576 985 634 166 11 0 0
OW 0 0 1 298 150 26 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 187 456 58 2 0
ODI 0 0 0 3 714 93 10 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 89 521 51 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 34 263 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8881 6576 975 809 363 76 0 0
OW 0 0 11 230 226 43 12 0
VODI 0 0 0 79 464 38 9 0
ODI 0 0 0 4 355 63 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 167 516 300 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 7 0 0


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