Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2017-01-19

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-01-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 49494 29410 8716 1789 278 98 1 0
OW 57 47 209 547 198 39 5 0
VODI 0 6 89 460 426 46 7 0
ODI 0 0 30 204 602 120 9 0
CDI 0 0 3 112 829 395 7 0
VCDI 0 0 0 137 770 3839 8456 1665
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-01-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 54957 26296 6515 1431 214 81 0 0
OW 60 60 175 542 184 11 9 0
VODI 0 2 102 499 423 20 12 0
ODI 0 0 17 236 528 67 9 0
CDI 0 0 1 120 712 258 8 0
VCDI 0 0 0 67 816 4028 9001 1639
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-01-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 53927 24196 9220 1670 267 64 0 0
OW 56 42 188 555 204 25 0 0
VODI 0 0 54 528 437 47 5 0
ODI 0 0 13 277 596 115 13 0
CDI 0 0 0 125 706 460 46 0
VCDI 0 0 0 45 593 5014 7888 1724
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-01-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 53193 23877 8857 2037 371 123 4 0
OW 57 42 152 671 241 15 0 0
VODI 0 12 94 500 444 63 0 0
ODI 0 1 64 305 534 146 1 0
CDI 0 0 27 213 887 689 39 0
VCDI 0 0 5 149 1230 4099 8280 1678
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 53193 23881 8891 2111 387 122 4 0
OW 57 38 130 655 216 16 0 0
VODI 0 12 81 461 463 62 0 0
ODI 0 1 58 285 548 155 1 0
CDI 0 0 32 213 851 647 43 0
VCDI 0 0 7 150 1242 4133 8276 1678

Date: 2017-01-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 52789 22750 10476 1888 192 43 0 0
OW 60 38 180 680 224 8 0 0
VODI 0 23 68 596 421 44 0 0
ODI 0 12 44 329 506 147 0 0
CDI 0 0 50 201 812 684 6 0
VCDI 0 0 15 207 654 3705 9188 2060
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 52789 22739 10505 1917 190 42 0 0
OW 60 50 155 707 198 5 0 0
VODI 0 25 74 568 432 35 0 0
ODI 0 9 43 314 539 133 0 0
CDI 0 0 41 202 776 713 7 0
VCDI 0 0 15 193 674 3703 9187 2060

Date: 2017-01-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55509 22414 8751 1711 171 24 0 0
OW 60 14 85 773 250 13 0 0
VODI 0 0 8 525 599 37 0 0
ODI 0 1 0 153 753 121 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 60 647 656 7 0
VCDI 0 0 0 41 508 3010 7724 4475
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55509 22356 8619 1586 253 28 0 0
OW 60 66 144 581 299 30 0 0
VODI 0 6 43 550 447 44 0 0
ODI 0 1 20 292 560 125 1 0
CDI 0 0 15 129 655 560 23 0
VCDI 0 0 3 125 714 3074 7707 4475

Date: 2017-01-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 50227 27113 9957 1137 130 3 0 0
OW 60 52 250 609 176 15 0 0
VODI 0 25 116 661 347 55 0 0
ODI 0 2 53 319 448 128 0 0
CDI 0 0 15 167 614 411 5 0
VCDI 0 0 8 159 781 4149 8093 2815
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 50227 26969 9824 1191 217 17 0 0
OW 60 144 271 581 134 34 0 0
VODI 0 38 149 557 355 70 0 0
ODI 0 20 54 294 445 151 0 0
CDI 0 15 25 192 611 489 4 0
VCDI 0 6 76 237 734 4000 8094 2815

Date: 2017-01-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 51655 25107 10314 1218 171 3 0 0
OW 60 93 256 625 201 16 0 0
VODI 0 54 114 531 372 84 3 0
ODI 0 42 56 307 408 138 17 0
CDI 0 22 49 200 506 401 98 0
VCDI 0 6 71 337 884 3800 8711 2170
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 51655 25007 10210 1275 292 20 0 0
OW 60 120 302 503 244 40 0 0
VODI 0 78 122 594 334 78 2 0
ODI 0 41 66 331 340 123 14 0
CDI 0 33 42 170 451 359 83 0
VCDI 0 45 118 345 881 3822 8730 2170


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