Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2016-12-29

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-01-02

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 637 294 165 4 0 0 0
OW 0 0 35 230 18 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 10 152 98 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 53 168 11 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 14 261 130 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 459 2533 8064 23563
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 615 185 122 2 0 0 0
OW 0 22 109 126 17 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 40 145 47 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 5 102 87 8 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 90 274 44 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 32 581 2622 8064 23563

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 84 448 2601
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 84 448 2601

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 18 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 66 3 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 302 1930 7663
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 14 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 372 1933 7663

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 13 27 1 0 0 0
OW 0 0 8 69 32 4 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 73 40 5 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 5 127 15 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 65 148 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2884 1995 143
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 6 11 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 8 30 30 4 0 0
VODI 0 0 7 51 17 7 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 57 37 11 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 25 95 57 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 86 2977 1995 143

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 35
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 26 875 6310
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 15
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 26 875 6330

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 22 626 4676
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 23 626 4676

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 143 61 84 34 0 0 0
OW 0 0 16 101 91 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 13 40 136 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 6 32 133 48 0 0
CDI 0 0 2 38 125 228 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 51 228 2529 2188 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 134 29 108 107 3 0 0
OW 0 8 10 61 103 17 0 0
VODI 0 1 22 44 129 25 0 0
ODI 0 0 16 21 92 49 0 0
CDI 0 0 17 21 85 183 0 0
VCDI 0 0 4 91 231 2532 2188 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 93 8222 1712 206 0 0 0 0
OW 0 14 18 157 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 9 101 71 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 3 34 131 7 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 21 98 124 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 8 60 233 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 93 8195 1685 176 0 0 0 0
OW 0 29 29 141 13 0 0 0
VODI 0 10 6 120 48 0 0 0
ODI 0 2 6 40 117 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 12 15 119 66 0 0
VCDI 0 0 4 35 72 298 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2788 5549 761 39 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 37 89 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 11 132 10 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 75 45 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 38 150 63 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 50 354 1504 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2788 5541 633 24 0 0 0 0
OW 0 8 93 52 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 68 68 14 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 11 100 29 1 0 0
CDI 0 0 4 112 67 30 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 17 145 386 1505 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5632 5533 889 335 211 105 0 0
OW 0 3 0 42 19 13 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 23 30 13 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 3 42 27 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 28 40 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5632 5536 889 359 228 112 0 0
OW 0 0 0 29 15 13 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 12 36 18 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 3 31 19 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 20 36 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 31 73 77 9 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 66 12 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 2 70 24 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 47 40 11 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 21 71 62 3 0
VCDI 0 0 0 11 121 795 4016 238
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 30 56 42 16 0 0 0
OW 0 1 10 6 15 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 7 64 13 7 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 53 4 18 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 69 39 48 3 0
VCDI 0 0 0 58 190 798 4016 238

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 24 104 20 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 168 1739 4950 1579
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 24 139 112 2
VCDI 0 0 0 0 168 1707 4858 1577

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9298 6299 812 386 3 0 0 0
OW 0 4 0 256 36 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 192 170 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 30 500 10 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 269 198 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 169 1061 514 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9298 6298 808 335 4 0 0 0
OW 0 5 4 284 36 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 166 216 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 76 304 14 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 312 126 5 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 275 1129 511 0


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