Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2016-12-29

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-12-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 4 92 70 0 0 0
OW 0 0 70 348 190 52 2 0
VODI 0 0 48 263 332 296 66 0
ODI 0 0 0 102 327 398 21 0
CDI 0 0 0 41 274 762 43 1
VCDI 0 0 0 15 324 4884 13174 23667
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-12-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 80 51 60 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 112 393 210 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 75 283 540 16 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 199 974 49 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 279 4687 13613 24244
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-12-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 16 43 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 165 38 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 395 1123 39 3
VCDI 0 0 0 0 335 5167 11237 27301
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-12-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 7 80 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 9 114 633 168 0
VCDI 0 0 0 16 457 5676 12250 26456
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 6 79 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 111 651 129 0
VCDI 0 0 0 20 461 5659 12289 26456

Date: 2016-12-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 5 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 9 32 9 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 38 15 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 55 330 102 23
VCDI 0 0 0 0 224 6213 14623 24184
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 4 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 10 33 5 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 31 15 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 55 302 127 18
VCDI 0 0 0 0 230 6245 14598 24189

Date: 2017-01-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 13 27 1 0 0 0
OW 0 0 8 69 32 4 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 73 40 5 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 5 127 36 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 126 382 26 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 226 6036 13115 25515
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 6 11 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 8 30 30 4 0 0
VODI 0 0 7 51 17 7 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 57 39 11 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 25 158 269 113 2
VCDI 0 0 0 0 308 6172 13028 25513

Date: 2017-01-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 19 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 73 40 4 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 89 23 22 3 0
ODI 0 0 0 5 115 44 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 89 329 17 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 69 4441 13515 26969
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 10 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 42 23 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 92 29 20 3 0
ODI 0 0 0 41 86 30 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 87 206 70 25
VCDI 0 0 0 0 111 4584 13462 26944

Date: 2017-01-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 31 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 25 70 20 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 10 113 36 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 14 235 214 16 1
VCDI 0 0 0 1 264 4890 13609 26314
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 18 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 28 40 10 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 14 107 48 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 90 35 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 79 170 25 3
VCDI 0 0 0 14 369 4897 13600 26312


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