Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2016-12-15

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-12-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55732 32903 12490 2197 435 31 0 0
OW 34 309 393 1368 430 62 0 0
VODI 0 72 258 998 665 154 0 0
ODI 0 8 138 498 736 272 3 0
CDI 0 0 20 413 1009 880 85 38
VCDI 0 0 0 300 1616 9784 27890 34827
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-12-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57609 28609 12318 2306 629 50 0 0
OW 29 216 445 1188 711 162 0 0
VODI 0 122 140 1238 852 404 0 0
ODI 0 5 68 547 635 509 7 0
CDI 0 2 8 351 866 1218 153 83
VCDI 0 0 0 167 1823 9580 27743 36255
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-12-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56681 30925 9766 2404 321 59 0 0
OW 42 158 286 1327 427 26 0 0
VODI 0 59 124 1055 1284 141 0 0
ODI 0 14 7 444 1328 362 0 0
CDI 0 4 0 242 1116 1501 118 82
VCDI 0 0 0 64 1396 9596 22450 43239
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-12-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62260 28034 4752 2854 343 56 0 0
OW 43 101 368 1175 747 27 0 0
VODI 0 11 168 833 1355 305 0 0
ODI 0 0 30 493 1284 461 0 0
CDI 0 0 2 379 1156 1206 111 79
VCDI 0 0 0 168 1568 10999 26156 39524
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62260 28053 4833 2936 424 56 0 0
OW 43 86 270 1051 630 37 0 0
VODI 0 7 165 886 1391 338 0 0
ODI 0 0 45 471 1301 430 0 0
CDI 0 0 7 358 1114 1095 105 77
VCDI 0 0 0 200 1593 11098 26162 39526

Date: 2016-12-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56543 28797 8539 2386 787 75 0 0
OW 44 142 365 1260 664 84 0 0
VODI 0 12 177 1109 919 217 0 0
ODI 0 0 34 555 1332 430 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 473 1459 1096 65 45
VCDI 0 0 0 130 1939 9262 20482 47625
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56543 28818 8598 2541 826 74 0 0
OW 44 121 320 1106 661 110 0 0
VODI 0 11 166 1078 871 155 0 0
ODI 0 1 31 566 1317 462 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 483 1411 1079 109 50
VCDI 0 0 0 139 2014 9284 20438 47620

Date: 2016-12-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 52867 29119 12234 1859 292 186 27 0
OW 47 41 194 1366 213 167 1 0
VODI 0 4 30 1210 789 227 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 403 1542 509 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 136 1754 2283 112 37
VCDI 0 0 0 83 1020 10939 23660 43695
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 52867 28917 11668 1638 532 488 28 0
OW 47 175 466 922 270 397 17 0
VODI 0 68 219 1124 524 661 22 0
ODI 0 4 76 664 874 543 22 0
CDI 0 0 29 429 1474 1293 140 34
VCDI 0 0 0 280 1936 10929 23573 43698

Date: 2016-12-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55216 29743 8497 1626 321 107 28 0
OW 52 304 474 842 320 174 33 0
VODI 0 78 401 843 639 283 14 0
ODI 0 23 193 591 717 347 18 4
CDI 0 7 93 624 997 1322 120 69
VCDI 0 0 121 726 2444 13973 29583 35081
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55216 29428 8090 1452 470 476 64 0
OW 52 329 534 601 294 333 35 0
VODI 0 210 393 847 477 657 72 0
ODI 0 117 270 638 607 630 72 4
CDI 0 46 184 585 884 1027 232 45
VCDI 0 25 308 1129 2706 13083 29321 35105

Date: 2016-12-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56309 28287 7782 1370 304 101 7 0
OW 60 527 559 772 303 74 2 0
VODI 0 373 647 821 555 303 66 0
ODI 0 154 481 551 578 427 21 0
CDI 0 100 334 448 760 969 112 10
VCDI 0 94 543 1000 2304 13198 31407 34335
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56309 28034 7666 1394 413 273 63 0
OW 60 351 481 637 270 372 39 0
VODI 0 358 410 722 476 733 87 0
ODI 0 240 249 494 577 762 109 0
CDI 0 212 283 458 746 894 220 26
VCDI 0 340 1257 1257 2322 12038 31097 34319


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