Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2016-10-20

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-10-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4140 15089 1448 289 0 0 0 0
OW 0 674 1084 329 19 0 0 0
VODI 0 156 337 1407 203 45 0 0
ODI 0 8 12 325 951 152 25 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 439 705 95 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 47 2508 12811 2567
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-10-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3469 14629 1709 212 0 0 0 0
OW 0 892 842 286 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 108 692 1129 258 11 0 0
ODI 0 73 74 436 596 293 40 0
CDI 0 1 0 30 372 769 289 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 9 2317 10953 5375
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-10-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3374 14186 1188 369 0 0 0 0
OW 0 1010 1125 653 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 316 471 1513 132 2 0 0
ODI 0 17 2 234 713 58 0 0
CDI 0 1 0 9 348 760 41 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 32 1951 9834 7525
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-10-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2961 12962 1607 407 7 0 0 0
OW 0 970 679 558 37 0 0 0
VODI 0 345 730 1746 615 6 0 0
ODI 0 47 33 434 573 233 0 0
CDI 0 6 0 49 384 584 81 2
VCDI 0 0 0 1 126 2124 8674 8885
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2939 13195 1589 470 13 0 0 0
OW 22 676 762 563 48 0 0 0
VODI 0 393 672 1798 661 3 0 0
ODI 0 61 26 331 588 234 0 0
CDI 0 5 0 30 320 638 81 3
VCDI 0 0 0 3 112 2072 8674 8884

Date: 2016-10-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2512 12576 1250 148 0 0 0 0
OW 0 932 669 412 25 2 0 0
VODI 0 250 905 1319 319 23 0 0
ODI 0 0 161 1001 959 392 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 92 463 790 108 5
VCDI 0 0 0 0 84 1655 8731 10083
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2512 12853 1264 260 7 2 0 0
OW 0 592 554 346 27 6 0 0
VODI 0 312 968 1369 435 71 0 0
ODI 0 1 199 889 908 321 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 106 393 880 109 6
VCDI 0 0 0 2 80 1582 8730 10082

Date: 2016-10-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3676 11055 1623 167 0 0 0 0
OW 0 1124 890 637 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 157 414 1756 259 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 275 1376 57 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 12 305 999 59 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 41 1017 7313 12651
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3676 10566 1433 272 6 0 0 0
OW 0 1045 311 293 46 0 0 0
VODI 0 647 731 1054 319 26 0 0
ODI 0 78 438 933 841 345 4 0
CDI 0 0 14 260 606 621 280 0
VCDI 0 0 0 35 166 1081 7088 12651

Date: 2016-10-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3787 10050 1422 106 0 0 0 0
OW 0 1566 653 294 21 0 0 0
VODI 0 701 839 1401 556 15 0 0
ODI 0 9 35 724 612 260 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 182 931 275 3 2
VCDI 0 0 0 5 434 3134 7502 10347
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3787 10055 1645 309 15 0 0 0
OW 0 999 163 224 117 2 0 0
VODI 0 1025 642 715 465 51 0 0
ODI 0 221 476 861 615 180 0 0
CDI 0 26 23 510 723 466 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 93 619 2985 7503 10349

Date: 2016-10-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2987 10395 969 260 0 0 0 0
OW 0 1710 303 248 18 0 0 0
VODI 0 1454 881 979 413 7 0 0
ODI 0 121 170 743 592 370 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 363 604 522 19 28
VCDI 0 0 0 91 774 3114 6408 11323
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2987 10659 1161 576 102 32 0 0
OW 0 906 160 153 158 47 0 0
VODI 0 1273 272 337 336 266 0 0
ODI 0 736 459 555 345 307 0 0
CDI 0 106 233 614 514 421 50 49
VCDI 0 0 38 449 946 2940 6377 11302


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