Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2016-09-29

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-09-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8505 13474 1646 379 0 0 0 0
OW 0 533 800 1041 81 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 229 1980 2277 46 64 0
ODI 0 0 0 172 1179 562 104 0
CDI 0 0 0 68 516 1517 526 0
VCDI 0 0 0 12 160 4385 5261 348
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-09-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9906 12290 1002 368 14 0 0 0
OW 0 798 698 910 69 0 0 0
VODI 0 49 308 1971 1082 23 26 3
ODI 0 0 4 204 1373 1232 151 0
CDI 0 0 0 114 505 1705 743 0
VCDI 0 0 0 9 140 5314 4855 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-09-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8013 13531 2298 509 5 0 0 0
OW 0 57 445 608 41 0 0 0
VODI 0 13 76 1497 620 15 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 166 1641 552 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 26 403 2903 376 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 4 6033 5900 130
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-09-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7697 14180 1577 408 63 1 0 0
OW 0 406 681 471 124 69 1 0
VODI 0 19 290 1203 299 106 35 0
ODI 0 0 0 345 1232 258 66 0
CDI 0 0 0 29 355 1921 569 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 21 2943 9117 1380
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7697 14301 1625 443 73 6 0 0
OW 0 291 633 422 111 69 4 0
VODI 0 13 289 1107 227 109 37 0
ODI 0 0 1 449 1216 258 94 0
CDI 0 0 0 35 445 2095 749 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 22 2761 8904 1380

Date: 2016-10-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5719 16124 1294 294 24 0 0 0
OW 0 655 900 514 140 17 0 0
VODI 0 11 330 1300 215 118 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 216 822 715 29 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 38 1237 1061 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 12 3013 8047 3020
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5719 16330 1588 529 82 7 0 0
OW 0 441 582 289 82 25 0 0
VODI 0 19 352 1163 226 102 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 343 728 643 94 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 120 1543 1147 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 13 2780 7896 3020

Date: 2016-10-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5178 17020 2315 319 0 0 0 0
OW 0 105 477 657 8 0 0 0
VODI 0 9 7 1170 129 10 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 71 1113 177 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 191 1715 129 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 8 4201 8896 1956
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5178 16087 1755 376 29 2 0 0
OW 0 914 564 405 189 46 0 0
VODI 0 133 475 1108 211 182 7 0
ODI 0 0 5 328 587 445 173 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 415 1190 812 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 18 4238 8038 1956

Date: 2016-10-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6372 15220 1803 969 38 0 0 0
OW 0 213 301 729 185 0 0 0
VODI 0 17 127 740 397 54 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 331 666 117 13 0
CDI 0 0 0 10 608 985 220 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 27 6833 8871 20
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6372 14727 1350 500 5 0 0 0
OW 0 718 695 856 105 0 0 0
VODI 0 5 186 1084 686 66 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 324 517 403 211 0
CDI 0 0 0 15 567 811 657 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 41 6709 8236 20

Date: 2016-10-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6569 14611 2034 509 0 0 0 0
OW 0 398 262 879 75 0 0 0
VODI 0 22 180 874 476 11 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 275 624 159 9 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 652 885 199 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 47 6387 9164 564
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6569 14139 1461 409 3 0 0 0
OW 0 809 725 584 27 0 0 0
VODI 0 83 289 1197 516 53 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 335 602 334 134 0
CDI 0 0 0 13 620 771 515 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 106 6284 8723 564


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