Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2016-08-18

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-08-22

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1571 1196 431 1 0 0 0
OW 0 4 523 1409 36 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 29 4080 881 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 504 9275 434 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 783 8539 690 4
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1692 3868 948
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1074 858 472 20 0 0 0
OW 0 410 464 872 140 6 0 0
VODI 0 89 397 3335 1084 95 4 0
ODI 0 2 29 1695 6540 1204 139 6
CDI 0 0 0 50 3192 6380 1110 22
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2984 3305 924

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1114 364 195 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 3 65 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 112 30 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 20 141 28 0 0
CDI 0 1 0 12 69 200 11 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 27 741 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 987 227 115 0 0 0 0
OW 0 126 132 93 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 8 122 26 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 54 83 29 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 17 131 187 17 0
VCDI 0 1 0 3 0 37 735 0

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 193 4313 1663 210 0 0 0 0
OW 0 24 189 240 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 8 650 70 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 62 999 10 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 119 596 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 228 408 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 193 4275 1581 223 0 0 0 0
OW 0 42 152 186 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 20 125 355 46 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 359 852 11 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 39 273 528 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 17 295 408 0

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1291 1685 573 112 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 265 333 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 12 757 88 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 78 445 15 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1291 1685 528 155 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 223 322 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 92 581 289 13 0 0
ODI 0 0 7 222 241 2 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1067 4070 482 127 0 0 0 0
OW 0 8 95 287 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 347 121 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 44 560 22 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 7 9 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1067 3974 485 250 0 0 0 0
OW 0 104 83 220 19 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 9 265 262 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 70 407 31 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1139 736 373 20 0 0 0
OW 0 0 75 527 29 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 441 330 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 916 89 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 31 530 22 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 3 64 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1135 755 669 48 0 0 0
OW 0 4 50 447 169 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 6 226 595 34 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 514 277 11 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 311 75 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 3802 1545 979 3 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 3802 1545 980 3 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8021 3151 132 27 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8021 3151 132 27 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7548 2833 578 179 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 4 146 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 155 31 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 13 109 32 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 8 60 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7548 2833 560 153 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 22 164 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 168 73 8 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 8 75 83 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12988 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12988 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2573 3054 135 20 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 10 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 7 4 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2573 3054 135 28 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 9 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3366 3420 749 994 58 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3366 3420 749 994 58 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 16464 2042 310 1389 4 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 16464 2042 310 1389 4 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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