Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2016-08-18

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-08-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6820 12294 2359 887 0 0 0 0
OW 0 22 287 1380 47 0 0 0
VODI 0 9 67 3183 772 16 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 581 4189 495 40 0
CDI 0 2 0 9 862 3798 4201 1677
VCDI 0 1 0 0 0 103 1555 208
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-08-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8455 9955 3154 900 4 0 0 0
OW 0 24 399 1475 62 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 86 3143 907 21 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 674 4025 462 5 0
CDI 0 1 0 11 1066 3857 3947 1300
VCDI 0 0 1 0 0 320 1375 235
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-08-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3486 14975 3495 876 1 0 0 0
OW 0 96 729 1081 7 0 0 0
VODI 0 35 105 4030 313 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 793 4704 107 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 935 4136 418 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 0 989 4002 544
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-08-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 507 12954 7504 1957 14 0 0 0
OW 0 224 807 1194 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 43 218 3688 492 0 0 0
ODI 0 1 0 1015 4292 154 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 16 864 3665 323 0
VCDI 0 0 1 0 0 1601 3644 686
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 507 13035 7701 2092 12 0 0 0
OW 0 154 593 962 7 0 0 0
VODI 0 32 235 3579 471 0 0 0
ODI 0 1 0 1221 4209 185 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 16 964 3649 294 0
VCDI 0 0 1 0 0 1586 3673 686

Date: 2016-08-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2373 14971 4874 713 15 0 0 0
OW 0 383 1125 1015 7 0 0 0
VODI 0 41 346 3320 601 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1242 3735 153 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 21 976 3576 198 20
VCDI 0 0 1 4 48 3056 2875 175
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2373 15119 5239 790 13 0 0 0
OW 0 243 724 891 14 0 0 0
VODI 0 33 382 3160 623 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1417 3636 191 4 0
CDI 0 0 0 53 1055 3630 201 22
VCDI 0 0 1 4 41 2964 2870 173

Date: 2016-08-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6085 12049 3860 2172 61 0 0 0
OW 0 24 812 1280 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 48 3982 520 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 383 4460 236 0 0
CDI 0 1 0 12 408 4432 11 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1660 3158 212
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6085 11739 3508 2144 61 0 0 0
OW 0 270 774 946 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 64 429 2969 737 15 0 0
ODI 0 0 9 1661 3066 87 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 106 1564 3447 33 0
VCDI 0 1 0 3 17 2779 3136 212

Date: 2016-08-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6810 14186 2963 685 1 0 0 0
OW 0 78 998 1428 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 84 3849 491 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 715 3801 70 0 0
CDI 0 1 0 32 962 3409 38 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2987 2033 242
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6810 13803 2518 611 1 0 0 0
OW 0 304 845 921 12 0 0 0
VODI 0 157 644 3034 604 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 38 1953 2430 19 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 187 2211 2137 32 2
VCDI 0 1 0 3 0 4310 2039 240

Date: 2016-08-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4647 16753 2977 646 0 0 0 0
OW 0 61 1229 1619 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 68 3818 398 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 768 3159 52 0 0
CDI 0 1 0 49 999 3106 426 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2578 2511 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4647 16493 2435 544 0 0 0 0
OW 0 231 967 927 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 90 836 3252 365 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 36 1944 2090 32 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 229 2089 1795 112 0
VCDI 0 1 0 4 11 3909 2825 0


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