Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2016-08-18

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-08-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96734 30057 7677 2339 20 0 0 0
OW 0 40 686 3156 177 0 0 0
VODI 0 10 78 5232 2397 53 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 812 9343 2056 65 0
CDI 0 2 0 9 2216 11398 8163 1782
VCDI 0 1 0 0 0 197 2036 310
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-08-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94981 31339 8204 2664 27 0 0 0
OW 0 31 882 3277 255 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 136 5205 2643 82 9 0
ODI 0 0 0 1034 9026 2218 67 0
CDI 0 1 0 11 3646 9655 7448 1451
VCDI 0 0 1 0 0 396 1947 410
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-08-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 88959 38584 8596 2399 31 0 0 0
OW 0 176 1196 2608 106 0 0 0
VODI 0 36 117 6536 1557 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1138 12869 713 9 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 2395 9326 1032 16
VCDI 0 0 0 1 0 1303 6002 1332
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-08-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82708 39472 13219 3519 65 0 0 0
OW 0 486 1252 2868 173 1 0 0
VODI 0 50 322 5966 1844 21 0 0
ODI 0 1 0 1869 11440 817 24 0
CDI 0 0 1 16 2617 8366 1143 9
VCDI 0 0 1 0 0 1637 5162 1979
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82708 39640 13469 3959 59 0 0 0
OW 0 330 977 2341 180 2 0 0
VODI 0 38 347 5819 1865 37 0 0
ODI 0 1 0 2103 10933 944 48 0
CDI 0 0 1 16 3102 8093 1045 10
VCDI 0 0 1 0 0 1766 5236 1978

Date: 2016-08-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94106 35749 7392 1981 61 0 0 0
OW 0 576 1627 2786 282 5 0 0
VODI 0 46 446 5345 2132 34 3 0
ODI 0 0 0 1972 10147 1502 102 0
CDI 0 0 0 21 2550 8044 1485 20
VCDI 0 0 1 4 48 3191 4746 644
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94106 35831 7788 2425 104 0 0 0
OW 0 501 1128 2207 262 5 0 0
VODI 0 39 542 5284 2122 84 8 0
ODI 0 0 7 2136 9750 1482 199 0
CDI 0 0 0 53 2941 8004 1259 22
VCDI 0 0 1 4 41 3201 4870 642

Date: 2016-08-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95371 32194 8463 5036 86 0 0 0
OW 0 36 1154 3018 65 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 49 6550 1555 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 722 12445 630 0 0
CDI 0 1 0 12 1017 9934 723 4
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1950 5081 948
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95371 31432 7865 5455 133 0 0 0
OW 0 686 1126 2314 332 6 0 0
VODI 0 110 637 5052 2378 152 4 0
ODI 0 2 38 2408 8712 1637 150 6
CDI 0 0 0 106 3596 7407 1202 22
VCDI 0 1 0 3 17 3316 4448 924

Date: 2016-08-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96214 33834 9988 2217 1 0 0 0
OW 0 107 1439 3159 104 0 0 0
VODI 0 5 86 6155 1377 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1438 10507 363 0 0
CDI 0 1 0 32 4132 7029 557 8
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 3473 3656 1164
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96214 33144 9206 2258 48 0 0 0
OW 0 551 1378 2345 194 0 0 0
VODI 0 242 856 5157 1994 78 0 0
ODI 0 9 73 3045 7986 882 25 0
CDI 0 0 0 193 5870 4804 514 27
VCDI 0 1 0 3 29 5103 3674 1145

Date: 2016-08-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96800 34993 8747 1776 1 0 0 0
OW 0 252 2002 3305 47 0 0 0
VODI 0 5 90 6224 1166 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1661 9473 304 0 0
CDI 0 1 0 56 4115 7165 586 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 4159 4078 40
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96800 34485 8142 2245 80 0 0 0
OW 0 589 1554 2010 174 1 0 0
VODI 0 174 1090 5227 1729 79 0 0
ODI 0 2 53 3172 6902 1020 59 0
CDI 0 0 0 364 5719 4631 217 0
VCDI 0 1 0 4 198 5899 4388 40


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