Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Asian sector

Bulletin date: 2016-07-07

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-07-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 41 2449 2595 660 11 1 0 0
OW 0 11 38 672 82 9 0 0
VODI 0 2 19 692 573 79 0 0
ODI 0 0 3 259 2199 498 6 0
CDI 0 0 0 70 1971 7930 727 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 71 1790 5798 2825
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-07-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 4180 1369 441 14 0 0 0
OW 0 2 80 639 75 7 0 0
VODI 0 0 13 626 661 109 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 273 2424 592 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 18 1487 8186 1353 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 30 1771 5867 1859
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-07-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 3417 2652 443 12 0 0 0
OW 0 2 133 407 30 1 0 0
VODI 0 0 15 767 646 21 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 137 3783 563 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1565 8567 325 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 253 4047 4293 1
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-07-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1 4581 1782 344 4 8 0 0
OW 0 2 79 527 70 6 0 0
VODI 0 1 15 739 902 91 2 0
ODI 0 1 4 210 3421 778 7 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 1611 8513 767 0
VCDI 0 1 0 0 43 4278 3293 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1 4581 1823 476 15 8 0 0
OW 0 2 36 431 81 3 0 0
VODI 0 1 17 720 1042 92 0 0
ODI 0 1 4 193 3170 971 36 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 1689 8287 803 0
VCDI 0 1 0 0 54 4313 3230 0

Date: 2016-07-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 11 4417 1977 428 1 10 0 0
OW 0 0 69 560 143 29 0 0
VODI 0 2 23 779 1149 106 14 0
ODI 0 2 1 229 3408 910 40 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1489 8856 574 0
VCDI 0 1 0 0 54 4108 2692 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 11 4417 2013 594 34 10 0 0
OW 0 0 39 468 179 32 0 0
VODI 0 2 17 678 1311 153 8 0
ODI 0 2 1 248 3320 1082 74 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 1333 8398 544 0
VCDI 0 1 0 0 67 4344 2694 0

Date: 2016-07-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 45 4539 1934 302 0 6 0 0
OW 0 3 82 493 32 9 0 0
VODI 0 4 6 1154 601 32 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 140 4399 618 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 894 11131 593 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 3 1720 3339 1
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 45 4539 1966 571 62 14 0 0
OW 0 1 37 556 250 36 0 0
VODI 0 4 18 646 1507 246 61 0
ODI 0 2 1 313 2925 1478 127 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 1088 8613 524 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 97 3129 3221 1

Date: 2016-07-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1111 3474 2026 281 3 4 0 0
OW 0 17 141 573 41 12 1 0
VODI 0 4 16 1319 1190 60 6 0
ODI 0 0 0 310 3673 1097 30 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1116 10197 1547 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 5 1216 2609 2
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1111 3473 2041 514 124 20 2 0
OW 0 15 80 604 328 74 12 0
VODI 0 3 53 824 1684 355 86 0
ODI 0 4 9 536 2659 1471 205 0
CDI 0 0 0 6 1120 8662 1677 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 113 2004 2211 2

Date: 2016-07-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 221 4907 1494 432 10 2 0 0
OW 0 37 195 740 49 18 0 0
VODI 0 14 64 1516 1462 66 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 515 3145 1412 14 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1348 10165 1370 0
VCDI 0 1 0 0 88 1687 1110 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 221 4898 1533 843 133 21 0 0
OW 0 25 84 694 313 99 6 0
VODI 0 25 104 1004 1624 478 47 0
ODI 0 10 32 644 2358 1809 229 0
CDI 0 1 0 18 1521 10049 1285 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 153 894 927 0


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