Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2016-06-02

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-05-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1543 1026 646 21 0 0 0
OW 0 81 155 410 115 11 3 0
VODI 0 47 140 353 354 65 16 0
ODI 0 29 80 320 446 225 55 0
CDI 0 20 131 452 1049 1702 812 1
VCDI 0 0 1 159 303 6373 19511 9211
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-05-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1438 1165 671 24 1 0 0
OW 0 98 149 424 127 6 9 0
VODI 0 79 141 361 387 57 31 0
ODI 0 17 96 427 489 274 65 0
CDI 0 54 116 497 949 2014 818 6
VCDI 0 0 18 193 356 5482 22335 6492
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-05-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1864 1334 869 20 0 0 0
OW 0 70 143 558 109 3 4 0
VODI 0 27 80 438 440 24 14 0
ODI 0 25 26 257 715 269 47 0
CDI 0 10 107 394 869 2540 642 6
VCDI 0 0 0 61 266 4704 20517 8414
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-06-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1584 1573 938 52 0 0 0
OW 0 58 167 486 146 5 4 0
VODI 0 21 92 368 423 57 21 0
ODI 0 18 41 250 525 298 90 5
CDI 0 15 144 429 870 2721 1139 2
VCDI 0 0 1 110 314 5113 19998 7788
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1597 1603 989 66 0 0 0
OW 0 47 145 433 134 7 5 0
VODI 0 20 91 368 412 50 18 2
ODI 0 22 37 264 512 262 85 4
CDI 0 10 142 447 904 2765 1180 1
VCDI 0 0 0 80 302 5110 19964 7788

Date: 2016-06-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1297 1696 890 81 10 0 0
OW 0 65 127 402 208 19 6 0
VODI 0 41 72 389 435 150 12 0
ODI 0 28 55 273 652 403 56 0
CDI 0 5 178 440 1138 3542 1543 2
VCDI 0 0 0 151 576 6947 15771 8206
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1312 1720 935 88 14 1 0
OW 0 56 117 383 201 20 6 0
VODI 0 34 62 368 444 135 11 0
ODI 0 29 42 281 648 422 66 0
CDI 0 5 182 440 1131 3500 1748 13
VCDI 0 0 5 138 578 6980 15556 8195

Date: 2016-06-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1443 1646 857 94 0 0 0
OW 0 68 215 445 154 3 1 0
VODI 0 32 95 628 479 32 3 0
ODI 0 18 95 333 1100 276 25 0
CDI 0 9 50 406 1641 4792 537 0
VCDI 0 0 0 28 332 5237 17666 7126
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1444 1611 974 161 2 1 0
OW 0 45 154 278 255 27 5 0
VODI 0 39 100 425 460 148 32 0
ODI 0 25 101 317 649 432 76 0
CDI 0 17 135 602 1525 3868 2021 57
VCDI 0 0 0 101 750 5863 16097 7069

Date: 2016-06-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1587 1471 1098 162 0 0 0
OW 0 58 171 599 242 9 0 0
VODI 0 11 103 573 561 64 3 0
ODI 0 3 90 372 846 263 35 0
CDI 0 7 62 501 1506 4037 2395 0
VCDI 0 0 0 90 824 4935 15353 7835
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1524 1417 1144 272 0 1 0
OW 0 79 110 393 367 15 4 0
VODI 0 40 108 499 491 168 26 0
ODI 0 16 110 354 564 339 134 0
CDI 0 7 151 654 1439 3194 3441 62
VCDI 0 0 1 189 1008 5592 14180 7773

Date: 2016-06-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1637 1481 1103 205 4 0 0
OW 0 51 162 550 288 24 0 0
VODI 0 9 113 496 599 91 11 0
ODI 0 2 105 391 761 292 71 0
CDI 0 0 57 501 1504 4706 2896 3
VCDI 0 0 0 173 876 3930 18014 4760
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1579 1451 1228 487 10 1 0
OW 0 73 111 358 428 71 4 0
VODI 0 34 105 450 479 220 72 0
ODI 0 13 110 369 538 371 331 0
CDI 0 0 141 614 1304 3663 3770 31
VCDI 0 0 0 195 997 4712 16814 4732


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