Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2016-05-05

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-04-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65766 19184 2440 1639 54 0 0 0
OW 56 16 134 582 649 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 48 361 629 99 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 207 478 347 12 0
CDI 0 0 0 104 749 1092 146 0
VCDI 0 0 0 7 386 2424 6709 4781
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-05-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67246 18139 2176 1643 168 0 0 0
OW 55 34 149 506 540 17 0 0
VODI 0 2 62 423 391 227 23 0
ODI 0 0 6 284 394 199 131 0
CDI 0 0 0 68 962 916 529 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 590 2734 6159 4327
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-05-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67229 17890 2362 1831 265 0 0 0
OW 53 7 129 625 306 24 0 0
VODI 0 0 2 434 540 86 2 0
ODI 0 0 0 110 744 249 80 0
CDI 0 0 0 16 890 1700 601 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 122 2300 5727 4770
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-05-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67422 18022 2301 1817 319 11 0 0
OW 53 39 145 525 262 65 6 0
VODI 0 9 74 360 579 91 35 0
ODI 0 0 33 111 748 246 106 0
CDI 0 0 7 71 661 1633 308 0
VCDI 0 0 0 15 238 1863 5821 5104
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67422 18019 2312 1841 350 38 2 0
OW 53 41 135 526 224 41 11 0
VODI 0 10 68 345 551 101 27 0
ODI 0 0 30 101 761 205 95 0
CDI 0 0 15 59 658 1623 298 0
VCDI 0 0 0 27 263 1901 5843 5104

Date: 2016-05-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68359 17727 1989 1900 155 34 3 0
OW 53 82 156 519 309 57 50 0
VODI 0 50 76 366 552 145 81 0
ODI 0 3 48 138 558 288 64 0
CDI 0 0 31 96 779 1066 279 0
VCDI 0 0 1 16 280 1888 5848 5054
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68359 17725 2034 1887 134 47 21 0
OW 53 93 112 559 295 54 37 0
VODI 0 41 80 348 563 108 75 0
ODI 0 3 41 130 585 247 61 0
CDI 0 0 33 89 756 1121 286 1
VCDI 0 0 1 22 300 1901 5845 5053

Date: 2016-05-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65987 19887 2910 1420 176 4 0 0
OW 55 12 167 752 200 62 0 0
VODI 0 0 27 573 529 92 2 0
ODI 0 0 7 174 961 251 31 0
CDI 0 0 1 91 680 1953 209 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 115 1287 5513 4972
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65986 19784 2846 1598 251 117 14 0
OW 56 64 128 546 354 64 29 0
VODI 0 42 69 400 401 98 73 0
ODI 0 9 51 190 450 305 19 0
CDI 0 0 15 174 810 1241 282 1
VCDI 0 0 3 102 395 1824 5338 4971

Date: 2016-05-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68958 18200 2143 1506 159 11 0 0
OW 56 21 173 719 130 69 1 0
VODI 0 2 61 459 482 103 16 0
ODI 0 0 20 224 790 263 2 0
CDI 0 0 24 113 884 1592 185 0
VCDI 0 0 0 12 138 1440 4890 5254
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68958 18036 1967 1639 282 150 0 0
OW 56 103 179 437 219 49 8 0
VODI 0 73 135 337 348 125 9 0
ODI 0 11 83 248 432 263 0 0
CDI 0 0 29 301 913 1155 218 0
VCDI 0 0 28 71 389 1736 4859 5254

Date: 2016-05-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70385 17423 2169 1161 216 12 0 0
OW 58 34 166 606 200 69 0 0
VODI 0 25 62 368 549 138 13 0
ODI 0 21 17 292 543 362 17 0
CDI 0 12 36 170 601 1535 550 0
VCDI 0 0 16 86 179 1951 4408 4650
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70384 17249 1960 1272 412 98 0 0
OW 59 142 153 275 216 50 2 0
VODI 0 58 178 258 381 133 12 0
ODI 0 10 82 317 313 303 24 0
CDI 0 8 28 401 616 1264 539 0
VCDI 0 48 65 160 350 2219 4411 4650


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