Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2016-05-05

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-04-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 7 24 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 23 70 118 22 1 0 0
ODI 0 12 68 102 101 27 8 0
CDI 0 0 75 138 352 255 175 0
VCDI 0 0 165 485 1233 3729 17721 20955
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-05-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 17 36 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 63 77 105 26 0 0 0
ODI 0 40 47 105 93 26 17 0
CDI 0 57 59 185 384 211 145 0
VCDI 0 28 227 494 1201 3760 19171 19292
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-05-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 121 95 55 0 0 0 0
OW 0 51 37 80 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 45 50 142 129 0 0 0
ODI 0 38 55 207 171 33 10 0
CDI 0 24 93 404 479 340 365 0
VCDI 0 0 14 265 1241 4487 19463 17372
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-05-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 62 97 40 0 0 0 0
OW 0 48 50 71 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 34 98 288 6 0 0 0
ODI 0 18 101 246 107 32 15 0
CDI 0 5 104 513 514 207 358 6
VCDI 0 0 8 273 1178 4211 19924 17252
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 81 114 57 0 0 0 0
OW 0 37 52 68 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 29 91 318 22 0 0 0
ODI 0 18 98 209 137 26 14 0
CDI 0 2 97 513 509 205 327 7
VCDI 0 0 6 266 1137 4219 19956 17251

Date: 2016-05-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 51 82 39 0 0 0 0
OW 0 47 70 79 11 0 0 0
VODI 0 53 109 165 109 0 0 0
ODI 0 34 146 164 198 49 22 0
CDI 0 27 112 483 557 284 439 40
VCDI 0 9 54 348 1295 3536 17382 19872
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 84 138 70 0 0 0 0
OW 0 44 48 74 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 38 104 151 148 0 0 0
ODI 0 32 131 178 194 38 21 0
CDI 0 22 108 462 585 265 433 43
VCDI 0 1 44 343 1234 3566 17389 19869

Date: 2016-05-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 128 173 81 0 0 0 0
OW 0 139 207 229 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 22 144 387 100 0 0 0
ODI 0 20 82 247 248 11 2 0
CDI 0 0 50 247 943 640 132 0
VCDI 0 0 0 148 639 3461 16984 20401
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 77 149 102 0 0 0 0
OW 0 41 51 105 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 66 78 204 106 3 7 0
ODI 0 69 74 207 175 38 46 10
CDI 0 46 234 336 527 375 681 50
VCDI 0 10 70 385 1120 3696 16384 20341

Date: 2016-05-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 271 291 159 0 0 0 0
OW 0 103 112 250 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 71 177 242 116 7 0 0
ODI 0 22 114 209 193 59 3 0
CDI 0 13 89 280 895 796 333 9
VCDI 0 0 22 177 767 6464 17119 16502
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 129 126 137 0 0 0 0
OW 0 48 49 102 5 0 0 0
VODI 0 103 96 202 92 14 14 0
ODI 0 99 153 188 154 54 72 0
CDI 0 88 280 287 465 399 432 0
VCDI 0 13 101 401 1256 6859 16937 16511

Date: 2016-05-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 367 368 110 0 0 0 0
OW 0 156 219 158 7 0 0 0
VODI 0 139 130 284 68 2 0 0
ODI 0 47 98 225 167 42 16 0
CDI 0 26 99 314 642 679 418 14
VCDI 0 0 38 211 949 5693 17409 16771
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 227 198 100 0 0 0 0
OW 0 99 107 53 2 1 1 0
VODI 0 146 166 206 48 5 18 0
ODI 0 153 183 213 171 44 33 0
CDI 0 106 224 391 498 489 530 15
VCDI 0 4 74 339 1114 5877 17261 16770


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