Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2016-04-14

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-04-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60709 21616 2651 1266 312 12 0 0
OW 62 122 354 617 347 54 0 0
VODI 0 31 160 691 636 134 0 0
ODI 0 0 49 399 729 444 2 0
CDI 0 0 36 220 729 1294 133 0
VCDI 0 0 9 151 610 2798 7395 4328
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-04-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61835 19788 3149 1590 366 27 0 0
OW 62 159 359 678 443 51 0 0
VODI 0 69 136 514 841 282 0 0
ODI 0 9 68 313 624 549 0 0
CDI 0 9 41 214 506 837 154 0
VCDI 0 3 67 125 580 3592 6902 4158
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-04-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63151 19468 2029 1888 362 13 0 0
OW 60 68 187 610 500 30 0 0
VODI 0 0 79 469 888 245 2 0
ODI 0 0 3 281 708 619 12 0
CDI 0 0 40 89 681 1365 169 0
VCDI 0 0 42 131 464 4343 5992 4112
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-04-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62719 19538 2172 1971 459 12 0 0
OW 61 81 278 550 618 38 0 0
VODI 0 16 105 428 983 261 0 0
ODI 0 0 34 229 610 472 11 0
CDI 0 0 6 139 648 1030 70 0
VCDI 0 0 0 195 658 4851 5748 4109
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62719 19562 2208 1989 485 7 0 0
OW 61 55 233 547 613 40 0 0
VODI 0 18 113 388 878 261 0 0
ODI 0 0 30 232 717 421 11 0
CDI 0 0 11 150 620 1053 73 0
VCDI 0 0 0 206 663 4882 5745 4109

Date: 2016-04-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63198 19134 2120 1863 432 8 0 0
OW 60 71 255 594 758 16 0 0
VODI 0 9 95 436 933 323 0 0
ODI 0 0 22 171 445 466 0 0
CDI 0 0 3 133 540 1257 99 0
VCDI 0 0 0 36 572 4593 6011 4447
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63198 19172 2179 1962 597 9 0 0
OW 60 41 200 511 653 59 0 0
VODI 0 1 95 398 853 260 0 0
ODI 0 0 17 192 473 501 0 0
CDI 0 0 4 119 534 1374 136 0
VCDI 0 0 0 51 570 4460 5974 4447

Date: 2016-04-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63224 19783 2359 1496 186 0 0 0
OW 60 11 204 920 453 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 19 582 963 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 102 1049 229 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 41 684 1361 19 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 302 3283 7097 4669
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63224 19553 2089 1782 674 0 0 0
OW 60 160 246 516 592 39 0 0
VODI 0 65 146 357 671 82 0 0
ODI 0 16 64 260 555 325 3 0
CDI 0 0 36 159 621 916 49 0
VCDI 0 0 2 67 524 3514 7064 4669

Date: 2016-04-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63643 19401 2487 1438 178 0 0 0
OW 60 31 224 920 486 1 0 0
VODI 0 0 42 479 733 182 0 0
ODI 0 0 7 211 593 388 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 140 645 1132 89 0
VCDI 0 0 0 138 1178 2699 7166 4408
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63643 19174 2312 1704 709 117 0 0
OW 60 162 210 493 305 124 0 0
VODI 0 68 114 392 555 156 0 0
ODI 0 22 53 238 418 396 1 0
CDI 0 6 68 204 535 888 82 0
VCDI 0 0 4 295 1291 2721 7172 4408

Date: 2016-04-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64575 18798 1999 1828 201 0 0 0
OW 60 68 198 865 504 1 0 0
VODI 0 0 44 414 896 81 0 0
ODI 0 0 8 166 535 427 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 97 723 1244 32 0
VCDI 0 0 0 44 762 3958 6036 4535
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64575 18641 1874 2199 698 1 0 0
OW 60 180 168 341 480 20 0 0
VODI 0 40 137 328 547 237 0 0
ODI 0 5 48 245 357 416 3 0
CDI 0 0 23 223 522 979 31 0
VCDI 0 0 0 78 1017 4058 6034 4535


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