Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2016-03-10

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-03-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60455 21435 2442 1042 229 26 0 0
OW 51 514 495 423 282 12 0 0
VODI 0 290 352 672 336 72 9 0
ODI 0 34 160 758 544 117 31 0
CDI 0 39 53 478 903 551 223 0
VCDI 0 92 121 367 1065 2581 9048 2798
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-03-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57073 24415 2682 1130 274 3 0 0
OW 51 375 453 454 293 34 0 0
VODI 0 263 238 645 432 128 0 0
ODI 0 29 122 479 639 236 1 0
CDI 0 41 58 380 1024 894 110 0
VCDI 0 108 130 355 861 3757 7684 3249
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-03-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59623 21589 2648 1153 402 23 0 0
OW 50 428 403 738 268 28 0 0
VODI 0 172 188 931 594 135 0 0
ODI 0 38 96 321 1069 305 0 0
CDI 0 14 28 160 1061 1132 61 0
VCDI 0 0 0 12 468 3547 8454 2961
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-03-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62272 19764 2282 1088 240 0 0 0
OW 50 614 517 470 353 12 0 0
VODI 0 101 238 814 435 86 4 0
ODI 0 43 109 627 688 179 25 0
CDI 0 47 35 249 987 718 132 0
VCDI 0 0 8 80 649 4775 7705 2704
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62267 19689 2341 1191 267 0 0 0
OW 55 546 386 429 296 17 0 0
VODI 0 249 323 784 446 71 6 0
ODI 0 51 109 590 656 145 23 0
CDI 0 34 25 258 1007 694 145 0
VCDI 0 0 5 76 680 4843 7692 2704

Date: 2016-03-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61445 21002 2105 1040 356 23 0 0
OW 63 526 509 441 315 90 0 0
VODI 0 133 281 757 370 202 2 0
ODI 0 93 131 693 567 291 23 0
CDI 0 56 47 193 904 876 58 0
VCDI 0 0 5 76 499 5552 6853 2523
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61458 20773 2078 1081 350 37 0 0
OW 50 621 484 420 275 80 0 0
VODI 0 260 333 760 374 181 4 0
ODI 0 116 134 661 516 264 34 0
CDI 0 40 40 209 944 772 33 0
VCDI 0 0 9 69 552 5700 6865 2523

Date: 2016-03-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62104 20874 2066 936 387 23 0 0
OW 61 320 548 604 260 58 0 0
VODI 0 174 217 1197 515 176 3 0
ODI 0 12 24 286 697 352 12 0
CDI 0 0 0 62 616 1301 63 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 250 4445 7684 2770
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62115 20332 1731 988 486 53 0 0
OW 50 591 485 348 220 111 9 0
VODI 0 277 389 720 350 195 29 0
ODI 0 118 155 623 375 279 35 0
CDI 0 62 82 280 748 673 48 0
VCDI 0 0 13 129 546 5044 7641 2770

Date: 2016-03-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55405 25974 2704 1279 415 16 0 0
OW 50 298 339 470 378 37 0 0
VODI 0 77 260 590 507 209 0 0
ODI 0 41 44 309 810 400 22 0
CDI 0 105 113 484 989 1217 37 0
VCDI 0 0 1 90 545 4465 7812 2608
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55404 25737 2574 1231 539 54 0 0
OW 51 487 346 408 315 121 1 0
VODI 0 144 316 584 574 212 26 0
ODI 0 40 76 382 713 313 18 0
CDI 0 63 99 404 811 926 22 0
VCDI 0 24 50 213 692 4718 7804 2608

Date: 2016-03-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58905 22247 2613 1320 254 12 0 0
OW 51 210 306 339 435 68 2 0
VODI 0 124 215 388 439 241 17 0
ODI 0 68 126 297 418 479 21 0
CDI 0 23 89 476 399 1045 57 0
VCDI 0 97 120 445 1236 4762 8027 2729
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58905 22284 2525 1343 330 41 0 0
OW 51 256 407 388 331 101 10 0
VODI 0 107 299 568 499 232 32 0
ODI 0 30 95 367 626 405 3 0
CDI 0 20 44 311 698 984 76 0
VCDI 0 72 99 288 697 4844 8003 2729


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