Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2016-02-18

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-02-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55520 25024 4440 837 92 33 0 0
OW 51 170 400 730 101 33 0 0
VODI 0 119 303 572 370 82 3 0
ODI 0 18 157 289 506 129 26 0
CDI 0 15 59 291 600 490 129 0
VCDI 0 8 110 407 1609 4590 7995 2792
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-02-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 52581 28640 3419 745 98 15 0 0
OW 51 231 449 532 123 43 2 0
VODI 0 63 397 505 398 55 9 0
ODI 0 33 131 381 599 174 22 0
CDI 0 21 75 288 626 735 157 0
VCDI 0 0 119 400 1082 4640 7850 3411
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-02-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59472 22412 3279 1125 181 18 0 0
OW 63 229 329 493 150 41 11 0
VODI 0 85 238 628 339 57 25 0
ODI 0 15 81 352 577 153 34 0
CDI 0 3 51 221 856 416 147 0
VCDI 0 20 75 252 1541 4978 7121 3032
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-02-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56771 25563 2693 1188 196 31 0 0
OW 63 304 337 453 213 74 4 0
VODI 0 175 246 473 463 89 54 0
ODI 0 17 144 365 568 189 73 0
CDI 0 8 73 305 740 607 138 0
VCDI 0 19 121 366 1602 3585 7216 3574
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56771 25627 2741 1258 255 47 0 0
OW 63 273 326 460 218 58 9 0
VODI 0 140 205 432 403 97 51 0
ODI 0 19 131 353 528 195 62 0
CDI 0 8 87 267 725 563 133 0
VCDI 0 19 124 380 1653 3615 7230 3574

Date: 2016-02-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60662 21770 2383 1181 285 33 22 0
OW 63 421 313 390 243 49 25 0
VODI 0 316 260 393 379 94 47 0
ODI 0 50 185 288 442 208 60 0
CDI 0 20 175 330 616 803 111 0
VCDI 0 53 179 636 1023 4027 7827 2738
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60662 21848 2450 1230 337 38 25 0
OW 63 376 276 400 221 48 25 0
VODI 0 264 219 345 334 97 43 0
ODI 0 60 162 264 459 190 62 0
CDI 0 29 169 324 545 665 93 0
VCDI 0 53 219 655 1092 4176 7844 2738

Date: 2016-02-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60310 22814 2146 1059 192 32 0 0
OW 60 370 535 596 240 44 0 0
VODI 0 25 180 800 504 82 16 0
ODI 0 0 66 339 816 226 38 0
CDI 0 0 52 280 879 987 148 0
VCDI 0 0 44 268 776 3781 6980 3415
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60307 22514 1993 1174 337 78 3 0
OW 63 371 282 362 232 81 32 0
VODI 0 233 238 409 308 92 73 0
ODI 0 63 195 302 445 148 75 0
CDI 0 28 135 391 786 765 70 0
VCDI 0 0 180 704 1299 3988 6929 3415

Date: 2016-02-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61419 20593 2450 1101 301 5 0 0
OW 62 440 549 581 273 35 0 0
VODI 0 16 141 731 535 94 11 0
ODI 0 6 40 354 717 231 29 0
CDI 0 0 38 275 780 908 156 0
VCDI 0 0 52 248 732 4345 7310 3542
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61430 20533 2318 1191 434 31 0 0
OW 51 327 362 331 298 82 17 0
VODI 0 132 254 404 337 156 67 0
ODI 0 38 122 342 457 193 65 0
CDI 0 21 70 375 755 591 85 0
VCDI 0 4 144 647 1057 4565 7272 3542

Date: 2016-02-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60927 21129 2361 1046 83 4 0 0
OW 50 356 443 556 219 25 0 0
VODI 0 91 380 1047 432 71 11 0
ODI 0 5 63 608 519 199 27 0
CDI 0 0 39 491 696 658 148 0
VCDI 0 0 21 490 770 4071 8311 2753
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60926 20980 2270 1162 158 29 0 0
OW 51 338 304 446 219 49 15 0
VODI 0 203 305 485 307 106 44 0
ODI 0 27 239 518 311 205 62 0
CDI 0 20 83 646 559 465 58 0
VCDI 0 13 106 981 1165 4174 8318 2753


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