Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2016-01-28

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-01-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64493 19848 2306 631 128 90 6 0
OW 70 86 466 744 53 18 9 0
VODI 0 38 183 940 402 35 20 0
ODI 0 16 95 435 678 94 25 0
CDI 0 0 63 338 837 615 186 35
VCDI 0 0 7 235 1240 7089 33337 51157
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-01-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63526 20300 2395 847 156 125 0 0
OW 63 147 402 687 96 22 3 0
VODI 0 65 245 690 539 49 9 0
ODI 0 52 105 412 597 323 23 0
CDI 0 11 104 373 836 705 212 20
VCDI 0 0 20 255 1295 8914 30383 52042
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-01-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60417 23159 2640 1146 205 51 0 0
OW 97 290 580 557 137 16 0 0
VODI 0 76 301 980 413 43 4 0
ODI 0 4 67 383 893 109 13 0
CDI 0 0 16 211 1243 950 76 11
VCDI 0 0 16 158 981 10493 33540 46772
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-01-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60177 22699 3355 791 150 17 0 0
OW 51 261 472 456 74 29 0 0
VODI 0 191 315 808 234 33 10 0
ODI 0 64 351 545 645 120 17 0
CDI 0 4 80 428 1148 636 81 0
VCDI 0 0 34 302 1936 9827 33933 46774
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60165 22699 3447 814 159 13 0 0
OW 63 260 406 476 74 32 0 0
VODI 0 154 274 856 284 32 10 0
ODI 0 102 340 432 619 121 17 0
CDI 0 4 102 418 1040 619 81 0
VCDI 0 0 38 334 2011 9845 33933 46774

Date: 2016-01-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59180 23250 3293 991 213 65 11 0
OW 56 327 428 393 167 13 15 0
VODI 0 137 325 563 257 63 10 0
ODI 0 160 169 514 392 93 31 0
CDI 0 87 198 513 890 538 166 4
VCDI 0 8 89 465 1947 9436 32435 49156
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59179 23265 3397 1049 228 58 8 0
OW 57 308 343 407 127 18 17 0
VODI 0 132 299 565 292 53 12 0
ODI 0 127 175 433 435 103 22 0
CDI 0 125 171 464 838 550 171 8
VCDI 0 12 117 521 1946 9426 32438 49152

Date: 2016-02-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62377 21299 2734 1011 185 56 4 0
OW 79 198 467 614 144 24 4 0
VODI 0 223 386 784 449 29 8 0
ODI 0 15 105 447 747 110 7 0
CDI 0 0 62 346 1083 1249 104 13
VCDI 0 0 0 164 1310 7405 31636 51170
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62380 20645 2386 974 222 65 2 0
OW 76 450 303 370 205 33 18 0
VODI 0 273 299 402 348 39 8 0
ODI 0 131 238 334 332 170 10 0
CDI 0 142 111 351 641 821 151 16
VCDI 0 94 417 935 2170 7745 31574 51167

Date: 2016-02-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57881 25517 2954 688 109 42 0 0
OW 63 401 345 495 90 35 10 0
VODI 0 317 203 533 294 28 10 0
ODI 0 227 147 399 501 89 21 0
CDI 0 212 168 497 1094 498 108 37
VCDI 0 90 266 988 2290 8954 28963 51484
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57867 24726 2701 658 151 48 3 0
OW 77 525 320 356 149 37 21 0
VODI 0 393 251 372 257 53 10 0
ODI 0 246 129 329 311 116 42 0
CDI 0 221 93 425 791 407 166 34
VCDI 0 653 589 1460 2719 8985 28870 51487

Date: 2016-02-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60817 22518 2462 770 165 22 0 0
OW 51 368 303 426 152 42 0 0
VODI 0 313 207 508 244 79 1 0
ODI 0 168 181 333 454 74 20 0
CDI 0 44 244 325 1068 523 146 11
VCDI 0 0 334 979 2363 8728 31187 50418
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60812 21766 2165 688 212 18 0 0
OW 56 473 317 286 189 63 0 0
VODI 0 452 242 445 194 86 2 0
ODI 0 248 137 347 249 135 36 0
CDI 0 198 129 311 755 362 204 20
VCDI 0 274 741 1264 2847 8804 31112 50409


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